BUAD801 Decision Support Tools and Techniques

BUSINESS SCENARIO

A New Zealand company specialising in distributing goods to consumers is looking to expand its activity internally or externally (outside New Zealand). The management team of this company needs to look at the feasibility of that expansion by using quantitative analysis for some economic indicators. The two alternative scenarios are:

1. expand in New Zealand; or
2. establish a new division in another country.

Five economic indicators are selected to analyse and help in making decisions. 

1. GDP per head
2. Imports goods growth rate
3. Export good growth rate
4. Growth rate of GDP private final consumption expenditure
5. Unemployment population

Quarterly data for the period 2016 Q3- 2023 Q3 was extracted from https://stats.oecd.org for each of the above five variables for all OECD countries and made available to you (available on the BUAD801 Moodle page). 

You have been asked to select a country (with the approval of your lecturer) and prepare a report using a quantitative analysis approach to help the management in their decision-making.

As part of the report, you are required to:

1. Create appropriate graphs to correlate the five (5) variables above for the selected country and interpret the graphs you create. Select appropriate quantitative tools and apply them to examine the trend, distribution, and stability for each of the five (5) variables. Provide an interpretation of the results and justify these results in terms of helping decision-making. (20 marks)
2. Conduct an analysis to look at the relationship between the five (5) above variables for the selected country, interpret the measures that indicate the significance of the analysis, and evaluate the importance of the analysis for the decision-maker. (25 marks)
3. Forecast for the period (2023Q4 -2025Q3) for each of the five variables and provide an interpretation of the outcomes to support managerial decisions.

4. Distinguish between the forecasting method you applied, and the regression analysis used in requirement two using the calculation you performed in the two analyses. 
5. Compare the New Zealand statistical analysis supplied to you (on Moodle as an Excel worksheet in the assessment section) with the statistical analysis for your selected country in terms of the significance of the analysis used in both countries and evaluate the two alternatives’ scenarios with justification using the quantitative analysis.

     Provide management with your outlined recommendation using appropriate statistical language. (25 marks)

6. Use appropriate academic writing conventions (5 marks)

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