Draft A Report Highlighting" The Future Enterprise"

1.0 Introduction

With the global economy constantly changing, the developing of plausible scenarios that companies may face in the next 5-10 years is vital to a business’s continuity and survival. The purpose of this report is to analyse possible scenarios that Bellroy may face in the future. These scenarios range from financial factors, environmental concerns, to industry aspects. Bellroy, originally established in 2009, started off selling wallets (Bellroy 2020). Prior to this, wallets had flawed designs, often becoming bulky due to physical tender and other miscellaneous objects, however, with the progression towards digital currency, Bellroy designed wallets made to hold cards and introduced a slimmer and more streamlined design of a wallet. Soon after this, Bellroy branched into travel wear, designing a wallet specifically designed to make travelling easier and more convenient (Bellroy 2020)

2.0 Client Opportunity

The client opportunity has been identified as the new mental model adapted from the scenario matrix three (see appendix). The client opportunity is stage three of our four step scenario. We have identified the client opportunity as an opportunity to enter the luxury consumer goods market. Demand for cheaper luxury goods, while supply is available for product diversity of sustainable and non-sustainable luxury goods. It is believed that the manufacturer benefits from the supply of both sustainable and non-sustainable luxury products to retailers. Client likely to shift to internalized non-sustainable value chain of luxury goods. The scenario is most probable in Asian states with high GDP-per capita.

3.0 Scenario Planning Method:

Scenario Planning is defined as “identifying forces that will shape future market and operating conditions, exploring how those drivers may interact, imagining a variety of plausible futures, revising mental models of the present on the basis of those futures, and then using those new models to devise strategies that prepare organizations for whatever the future actually brings” (van der Heijden 1996). This report applies this scenario planning method through a scenario planning methodology (see appendix). This methodology is a four-step process adapted from four scenario matrix. The first stage identified the industry force driving change. The second stage identifies the problem scenario. The third stage identifies the client opportunity. The fourth stage identifies the strategy. These four stages make up the scenario. The scenario is examined through a scenario justification to identify if the scenario is true for the client. This will be highlighted in phase three of the project.

4.0 Scenario Matrix:

A method has been used to identify the most favourable scenario.

PESTLE > Clusters > Themes > Scenario Matrix > Scenarios

Cluster 1: Economic Development

Cluster Theme 1:

Customer Segment > Business Management > Regulations and Costs > Target Audiences > Profits

Online fashion retailers will have a harder time catering to the leather customer group due to increasing demands in the form of societal values changing towards animal free alternatives to everyday products. Online fashion retailers face business management challenges in the next 5 years, this is due to online retailers catering for a diverse range of target markets and target audiences whilst simultaneously dealing with competitors, changing regulations, and increasing business costs. Specifically, online retailers face competing interests with leather consumers, material costs, and female customer bases. Due to these factors, online retailers risk becoming spread too thin in the coming years, this poses a risk to cash flow consistency.

Cluster 2: Technological Development / Environment Cluster Theme 2:

Competition > Supply and Demand > Partnerships > Business Structure > Markets

Online fashion retailers will struggle to compete with competitors who are keeping up with trends in fashion and consumer performance. Supplier and buyer confidence is fluctuating as supply of materials are highly competitive and production is at risk of decreasing. This will pressure online retailers to create new partnerships that may be difficult to maintain and require changing to existing ownership and structure. Changing in supply in demand will also create new competitors in the online and retail fashion accessory market.

Cluster 3: Social and Environmental Responsibility Cluster Theme 3:

Sustainability > Partnerships and Brand > Luxury Products

Online retailers are in a desirable position to improve their sustainability partnerships through recycled materials and products and de-carbonisation. Online retailers can advertise these partnerships on social media to improve their community outreach and global brand image. This will allow online fashion retailers to enter the luxury retail market which is expected to grow significantly in the Middle East and throughout Asia.

Cluster 4: Industry Climate

Cluster Theme 4:

Operations and Service > Sustainable Materials > Brand > Co-creation > Business Expansion

Online fashion retail operations are regarded as high performing and their workplace deliver exceptional customer service to a global and technically proficient customer base, the materials that online retailers use to manufacture their green fashion products is further testament to their sustainable practices and customer loyalty. Through innovation in material working groups, online fashion retailers have improved their brand image and are in a strong position to grow their business within the next 5 years of the post-pandemic.

Cluster detail

Cluster 2 Technological development / environment

Cluster 3 Social and Environmental Responsibility