Super Retail Group | Revenue Forecast Model FIN3004 Assessment

Super Retail Group | Revenue Forecast Model

Hazel and Reg Rowe founded Super Retail Groups original business in 1972. Reg served as Managing Director until 1996, he was Chairman from 1996 to 2004 and a Non-Executive Director since the Companys listing on the Australian Securities Exchange in 2004. In 2023, Reg is retiring from the Board. The departure of the founder seems to have no negative impact of the Groups outlook. Over the past 20 years, Super Retail Group (ASX:SUL) growth has been driven by an increased depth in the auto parts and accessories retail sector as well as an expansion via acquisitions in the sports goods and outdoors sectors. As of June 2024, the portfolio of businesses held by Super Retail Group consists of1:

Supercheap Auto is Australia and New Zealands favourite specialty automotive parts and accessories retail business. With 341 stores, we provide a wide range of service parts, tools, and accessories, as well as products for the garage, travel, touring and outdoors.

rebel is Australias leading sporting goods retailer with 162 stores across Australia. Through rich digital and in-store experiences, customers from all walks of life can harness the transformative power of sport. With a broad range of quality product and expert knowledge, rebel inspires all Australians to achieve their sporting dreams and passions.

BCF is a leading outdoor retailer with 159 stores across Australia. With expert knowledge and service, we provide everything you need for your next boating, camping, or fishing adventure, all under the one roof.

Macpac is New Zealands original, technical outdoor brand, delivering quality gear, made responsibly, and trusted to last. Tested and proven in the ultimate outdoor test lab New Zealand our gear is designed to equip outdoor enthusiasts to adventure better. Launched in 1973, Macpac has 89 stores across Australia and New Zealand and is committed to delivering a great customer experience with expert advice.

The future of the group looks very promising, with an increase in the number of stores and in revenue per store. Super Retail Group also faces challenges from new entrants in each of the segments, both ofline and online, and from direct-to-consumer sales.

In this complex context, please create a revenue forecast model that includes :

QUESTION 1. FORECASTING TECHNICS AND EXTERNAL ESTIMATES

In SUL Revenue Model.xlsx, please forecast the expected revenue per segment (Super Cheap Auto, BCF, rebel, Macpac) for the 2025 2028 period using: [3 marks]

• LINEAR


• ETS


• Analyst estimates by segment (this is provided in the workbook by the same name)

QUESTION 2. REVENUE FORECAST | SUPERCHEAP AUTO (SCA)

• Create a revenue forecast for SCA for the 2025 2028 period considering the estimation methods discussed in R1 and R2. [4 marks]


• Here are some ideas:
  
  
  
  • The expected increase in number of stores
  
  
  • Conversion of traditional stores to next generation stores
  
  
  • The number of active members
  
  
  • The impact of an ageing carparc2and the transition to electric
  
  
  • The impact of cost-of-living pressures in customers buying
  
  
  
  

QUESTION 3. REVENUE FORECAST | BCF

• Create a revenue forecast for BCF for the 2025 2028 period considering the estimation methods discussed in R1 and R2. [4 marks]


• Here are some ideas:
  
  
  
  • The expected change in stores mix:
    
    
    
    • the opening of small format stores in regional locations
    
    
    • the conversion of traditional stores to the superstore format
    
    
    • relocation of weaker performing stores
    
    
    
    
  
  
  • The number of active members
  
  
  • The impact of a post-Covid normalisation in outdoor expenditure as a consequence of increased expenditure on services, entertainment, and offshore travel.
  
  
  • The impact of cost-of-living pressures in customers buying
  
  
  
  

QUESTION 4. REVENUE FORECAST | REBEL

• Create a revenue forecast for rebel for the 2025 2028 period considering the estimation methods discussed in R1 and R2. [4 marks]


• Here are some ideas:
  
  
  
  • The expected change in stores mix:
    
    
    
    • the opening of new regional stores
    
    
    • the conversion of traditional stores to the rCX store and Homes of sport format
    
    
    
    
  
  
  
  

• The number of active members and the relaunch of the loyalty program in


• The impact of cost-of-living pressures in customers buying

QUESTION 5. REVENUE FORECAST | MACPAC

• Create a revenue forecast for Macpac for the 2025 2028 period considering the estimation methods discussed in R1 and R2. [4 marks]


• Here are some ideas:
  
  
  
  • The expected change in stores mix:
    
    
    
    • Macpac Explorer
    
    
    • Macpac Adventurer Hub
    
    
    
    
  
  
  • The number of active
  
  
  • The impact of cost-of-living pressures in customers buying
  
  
  • The impact of increased international tourism and travel
  
  
  
  

QUESTION 6. OUTPUTS [6 marks]

• In the Dashboard worksheet, please use tables and charts to report the key results of your


• R3 gives some ideas on how to build a Feel free to use additional sources of inspiration.

• Please make sure you give the user access to comparing the performance of the business segments under the different scenarios in Q1 through Q5.


• Additional marks for WOW factor in the Dashboard [3 marks]

QUESTION 7. DISCUSS YOUR FINDINGS [6 marks]

In the Dashboard, in a text box, use industry data, company information and your own forecasts to assess the following for each business segment (please use bullet points):

• Sources of growth


• Risk factors


• Sector and company performance (at the Revenue level)


• Should Super Retail Group increase/maintain/reduce its exposure to the Why?

QUESTION 8. BEST PRACTICES [6 marks]

Please make sure modelling best practices are consistently used across the model.