Urban air pollution is a serious problem in many of the planet's big cities. Intense and unremitting traffic, together with uncontrolled factory emi

Abstract

Urban air pollution is a serious problem in many of the planet's big cities. Intense and unremitting traffic, together with uncontrolled factory emissions, convert city air worldwide into authentic clouds of smog. In many cases, the levels of contaminating particles exceed the limit for human safety laid down by the WHO.

Moreover, air contamination has become one of the major environmental risks for premature death from respiratory diseases, cancer, strokes, heart attacks, diabetes, and other diseases. It exerts a negative effect on worker productivity and mental health. The estimation for 2050 of the number of premature deaths caused by exposure to suspended particles is that they will more than double and reach 3.6 million per year worldwide.

In the last 30 years, Bishkek, the capital of the Kyrgyz Republic, has turned from one of the cleanest and greenest cities in the former Soviet Union to one of the most polluted cities in the world. The roots of that transformation lie in the negative socio-economic changes taking place in the country, including the population doubling in Bishkek mainly due to internal migration, uncontrolled construction of houses without relevant infrastructure, worsening socio-economic conditions, increased number of used vehicles, and low quality of gasoline. However, authorities have struggled to respond with immediate measures or develop a long-term strategy to deal with Bishkeks toxic air. Thus, it is urgent to examine and take action on the impacts of air pollution.

This research aims to investigate three main aspects of air pollution in Bishkek: public transport, house heating, industrial air pollution (solid waste landfill), as well as to analyze impact of air pollution: the environmental, social and economic. This includes public awareness and knowledge of air pollution, the impact on the health of city residents and the evaluation of main air pollutants. To gather the empirical data, I analyze and evaluate sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the city as well as situational analysis of Bishkek.

Introduction

1.1.Background of the study

Air pollution means the contamination of the clean, natural ambient air by any chemical or physical substance originating from different emission sources such as motor vehicles, industrial facilities, energy production, and household activities, which all are common sources of air pollution. There are also natural sources of air pollution, such as volcano eruptions, forest and land fires, desert/soil dust and sea salt. Air pollution can cause diseases, allergies, and even death to humans; it can also cause harm to other living organisms such as animals and food crops, and may damage the natural environment (for example, climate change, ozone depletion or habitat degradation) or built environment (for example, acid rain).

The health and well-being of humans depends on clean air. Public exposure to air pollution is rarely a choice, but is often the result of everyday living. In terms of exposure, people's workplace, residence, and mode of transportation all play a role. Air pollution is an invisible problem that cannot be seen, heard, or smelled, which is why it is called the "invisible killer". It is important to raise public awareness and perception of air pollution in order to encourage those most vulnerable to take action to reduce their exposure. A number of health effects have been linked to traffic pollution, including respiratory illnesses, cardiovascular diseases, foetal development issues, diabetes, and cognitive impairment. A strong body of evidence exists regarding respiratory and cardiovascular disorders.

Poor air quality is one of the most significant environmental threats to public health. Pollution levels can be caused by a wide range of sources, including industry, agriculture, power plants, households, and vehicles.

Air pollution is any chemical or physical substance that contaminates ambient air, whether it comes from nature or from man. Among the pollutants considered harmful to humans are particulate matter, ozone, carbon monoxide, oxygen dioxide, nitrogen oxide, sulfur dioxide, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), dioxins, heavy metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH). Particulate matter with a diameter less than 2.5 microns (PM2.5) is the most common air pollutant. A buildup of these particles in the lungs can spread to other parts of the body through the blood. Almost all airborne pollutants directly enter the bloodstream, bypassing detoxification in the liver, and affecting tissues and organs more directly and effectively than stomach-borne toxins. Thus, air quality plays an important role in human health.

In the first week of January IQAir, a technology company that publishes data on air pollution, recorded Bishkek as having the highest air quality index (AQI) values in the world for consecutive days, overtaking other notoriously polluted cities, such as Delhi and Dhaka. Various air quality monitoring platforms have recently identified Bishkek as having one of the highest levels of pollution in the world, particularly during the winter. The data collected from sensors placed around the city during winter often indicates dangerous pollution levels. Residents are often advised to avoid outdoor sports, to wear masks, to keep windows closed, and to use air purifiers indoors. During Soviet times, Kyrgyzstan's capital was considered one of the greenest, cleanest, and most picturesque cities in the Soviet Union, and its suburbs were dotted with sanatoriums and resorts.

Objectives of the study

Ambient air pollution has significant impacts on human health, both globally and in the Kyrgyz Republic. Therefore, it makes this subject an essential area to study. This study presents the compiled background on air quality in the Bishkek area as well as an overview of identifying the priority emission sources affecting air quality and its effect on human health. The objectives of this research are explained in detail as follows:

To identify the current status of air pollution in Bishkek

To conduct a meta-analysis on the availability and utility of information currently available to stakeholders aiming to advance policy development.

Based on secondary research, set recommendations to be implemented by decision makers and policy setting stakeholders

Data and methodology

This thesis only uses publicly available secondary data, such as existing researches and guidelines related to air pollution from international organizations. Literature review as a part of meta-analysis was conducted on availability and utility of information currently available to stakeholders aiming to advance policy development.

Thesis structure

air pollution and health

Air pollution is a major environmental health problem affecting everyone both in developed and developing countries. According to the World Health Organizations (WHO) most recent estimations, air pollution kills approximately 7 million people every year, thus it is one of the greatest environmental risks to health.

As a matter of fact, particle pollution has a greater impact on life expectancy than infectious diseases like tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS, behavioural killers like smoking, or even war. A number of chronic diseases are linked to air pollution, including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, pneumonia, paediatric respiratory infections, acute respiratory distress syndrome, lung cancer, cardiovascular disease, stroke, and endocrine disorders. Air pollution is a risk factor linked to decreased cognitive function, diminished intelligence quotient, shortened attention span, and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder.

Main pollutants

Particles (PM 2.5 PMl0)

Among all air pollutants, particulate matter (PM) poses the greatest health risk. Particulate matter in ambient air consists of sulphate, nitrates, ammonia, sodium chloride, organic carbon, black carbon, mineral dust, and water. The term particle matter refers to a mixture of solid and liquid particles of organic and inorganic substances suspended in the air, including heavy metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. The toxicity of PM components varies widely, and particulate matter's chemical composition is determined by its source. Depending on their size and origin, particulates can have adverse health effects. PM10 particles can lodge deeply inside the lungs, but PM2.5 particles are even more harmful, as they have a diameter of 2.5 microns or less. Blood can be contaminated by PM2.5 after it penetrates the lung barrier. Particulate matter exposure leads to cardiovascular and respiratory disease and lung cancer. In spite of the fact that larger particles dominate mass concentration measurements, fine and ultrafine particles (0.1 mm in diameter) are much more numerous. Particulate matter affects the health of most urban and rural populations in both developed and developing countries at levels currently experienced by most urban and rural populations. Both short-term and long-term exposure to the particulates can cause negative health effects. As a result of inhaling particulate matter, people may experience health effects. Exposure to high levels of small particulates (PM10 and PM2.5) is closely related to increased mortality and morbidity, both in the short and long term. Similarly, when small and fine particulate levels are reduced, related mortality will also decline, assuming all other factors remain the same.

Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2)

Exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) for a short period of time can have adverse health effects, particularly in sensitive population groups. It has been shown that pregnant women, particularly women over the age of 30, are at particular risk of losing their unborn babies, while long-term exposure can also have serious effects on the lungs (e.g. reduced lung function). In the same way as ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide is primarily a respiratory pollutant. Pollutants such as nitrogen dioxide and particulates are highly correlated. As well as being the main source of noes, nitrogen dioxide (NO2) contributes to the formation of nitrate aerosols, the main component of PM2.5 and ozone when exposed to ultraviolet light. Human-induced NO2 emissions are primarily caused by combustion processes (heating, power generation, and engines in vehicles and ships).

Sulphur Dioxide (SO2)

Sulphur dioxide (SO2) can be identified by its colorless invisibility and sharp odor. The element is produced by burning fossil fuels (coal, oil) and smelting mineral ores containing sulphur. In domestic heating, power generation, and motor vehicle combustion, SO2 is mainly produced by burning sulphur-rich fuels. As well as affecting the respiratory system and lungs, SO2 can irritate the eyes. When the respiratory tract is inflamed, coughing, mucus production, asthma attacks and chronic bronchitis get worse, and people are more susceptible to respiratory infections. In contrast to what was believed before, health effects are now associated with much lower levels of SO2. The causal connection between low concentrations of SO2 and co-pollutants is still uncertain, but reducing SO2 levels is likely to reduce exposure. The combination of sulphur dioxide and water results in sulphuric acid, which is the primary component of acid rain.

Ozone (O3)

Unlike stratospheric ozone, ground level ozone is formed by a photochemical reaction with sunlight and precursor pollutants, which include nitrogen oxides (NOx) produced by vehicles and industries, as well as volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from vehicles, solvents, and industries. Therefore, ozone levels are highest during sunny weather periods. Smog produced by photochemical processes also contains ozone. An ozone molecule reacts with a wide range of cellular components and biological materials and may have an adverse effect on respiratory tract and lung tissues. Air pollution can have a significant impact on human health during periods of excess ozone. This can lead to breathing problems, asthma, lung disease, and reduced lung function. There are three basic types of backdrops for measuring ozone: rural background, urban background, and industrial background. The ozone concentration near traffic stations tends to be low because ozone is consumed in the chemical processes of nitrogen monoxide to nitrogen oxides.

Carbon Monoxide (CO)

Carbon monoxide is created when hydrocarbons are not burned completely. The most common sources are traffic and residential heating. A high concentration of carbon monoxide can be extremely toxic, limiting oxygen supply to tissues and impairing cellular respiration. There are various symptoms associated with acute carbon monoxide poisoning, including headaches, nausea, vomiting, haematemesis, hyperventilation, cardiac arrhythmias, pulmonary oedema, coma, and acute renal failure. Measurements of carbon monoxide are recommended in urban environments, traffic, and industrial places.

Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs)

POPs (Persistent Organic Pollutant) refer to long-range compounds that are highly persistent, toxic and accumulate in organisms. POPs, including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), are recognised as being directly toxic to biota. Most of the compounds have been used as various industrial chemicals, flame retardants or pesticides, and some are impurities or are inadvertently generated e.g., in the event of combustion. POPs such as dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane, polychlorinated biphenyls, dioxins, and furans are the most harmful environmental toxins, as they persist in the environment for a long time and can cause harm to humans and the environment even in low concentrations. Some of these substances are associated with developmental and reproductive disorders observed in animals and may affect humans in the same way. The long-term interactions of the substances are not yet known. Incomplete combustion of fuels releases polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, or PAHs, into the air. PAHs are released into the air during all combustion of organic matter, but the most significant sources in urban air are the emissions from domestic burning, as it is not often very efficient and clean, and road transport exhaust.

Gender and air pollution

The impacts of climate change and air pollution can affect women and men differently. Increasingly,women are shown to be more vulnerable than men to the impacts of climate change and air pollution, representing the majority of the world's poor and being proportionally more dependent on threatened natural resources.

Causes and sources of air pollution in Bishkek.

Study area

Bishkek is the capital of Kyrgyzstan (Figure 12) with a population of approximately one million. Bishkek is in the Chuy Valley, at an altitude about 700900 meters, just north of the AlaToo Mountain range. At 40 kilometers south from the city, the highest peaks rise over four kilometers. Because the city is in a basin, there are few windy days, which tend to restrict air circulation throughout the Bishkek region. Another complicating factor is that the air temperature in and above the city is about 5C higher than in the surrounding atmosphere, creating a heat island effect. This effect blocks weak winds from outside, which prevail in the cold season. The climate of the city, being sharply continental, is determined by latitude and altitude, the considerable distance from oceans, local orographic effects, and the circulation of the atmosphere.

Kyrgyzstan is rich in hydropower, which accounts for 70 per cent of electricity production, and the country possesses vast coal reserves. Bishkek has one central heat and power station (CHP) and a deteriorating district heating system, numerous large and small heat only boilers and individual heating systems. Most of the district heating system and the heat only boilers were designed for gas, but many of them have been converted to burn coal or use electricity since the 1990s when natural gas imports collapsed following independence. In addition, a substantial share of urban households uses inefficient solid fuel-fired heating appliances.

Bishkek's population has doubled over the past 30 years, surpassing one million in 2018. There was a sharp increase in population accompanied by an internal migration of rural residents, something that the city was unprepared for. As more people moved to the capital, Bishkek began to grow in an unplanned way outside its originally defined limits.

A total of forty-seven residential areas have been built around the city in recent years. As an alternative to coal, city authorities have encouraged the use of natural gas as a way to meet the residents' coal needs while minimizing environmental damage. There is, however, considerable resistance to this plan among (mostly) poor people, since coal is much cheaper than gas for heating houses. It is estimated that every fourth Kyrgyz lives below the poverty line, and they care less about the environment than they do about surviving.

Air pollution in Bishkek is also largely caused by traffic. In Kyrgyzstan, the number of registered vehicles and the number of miles travelled by car has increased each year. In 2015, there were 1.3 million cars licensed and cars were used for 87% of journeys made by the public.

Because 94% of Kyrgyzstan is mountainous, substantial topographic variability exists throughout the country. Among countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan is the third most vulnerable to effects of climate change.

Figure 1. Location of Bishkek city

Public transport

Various sources are responsible for air pollution in Bishkek, including transport, heating, and the burning of waste at disposal sites. The transport sector is estimated to be responsible for the majority of the citys air pollution. The SAEPF under the GKR reports that up to 87% of air pollution is caused by mobile sources, while the NGO MoveGreen puts this figure at around 60% in the cold months of the year. As of June 2018, 391,450 private vehicles were registered in Bishkek alone, in addition to 4,071 microbuses, 180 buses, 133 trolleybuses and 12 private buses. Heavy traffic is concentrated in the city center. There are also about 90,000 vehicles commuting into the city each day, bringing the number of vehicles present within the city limits up to close to half a million. Approximately 400,000 tons of pollutants are emitted by vehicles every year. It is noteworthy that Bishkek had a SO2 emission per capita of 27kg in 2018. The reason that there are so many cars has been driven by the inflow of funds from Kyrgyzstanis that have migrated abroad; cars are among the first purchases of Kyrgyz people who earn money abroad. Bishkek's vehicles emit high levels of pollution, and run on low-quality fuel due to a lack of regulations regarding imported oil. In 2012, obligatory technical inspection for vehicles was cancelled by regulation. Relevant legislation was abolished in 2012, amongst others because of concerns about the potential it created for corruption. In the absence of comprehensive inspection and maintenance requirements, cars can be used without restrictions regarding their safety or environmental performance. Increasing car ownership has also been attributed to a lack of public transportation. A lack of trolleybuses and buses in the city leaves residents with overcrowded diesel-powered minibuses. Air pollution in cities is also exacerbated by a significant reduction in green park areas. The average citizen today has only 3.5 m2 of green space, as opposed to more than 30 m2 in the 1980s.

Residential heating

One of the main factors contributing to air pollution is the use of coal for heating by many local residents during autumn and winter. Not all districts of the city and the suburbs are gas-fired, bill for gas heating can reach a monthly wage about 15 thousand som (nearly 200 dollars).

The Bishkek coal-fired combined heat and power (CHP) station is the main energy production plant in the Bishkek area. The plant currently produces 910 MW of electricity and generates thermal energy

for hot water and heating and the largest electricity provider in the north of Kyrgyzstan. The power station of Bishkek is blamed for city air pollution. The contribution of the power station to air quality worsening is being disputed now. According to one of the opinions, the ecological situation in the city began to get worse after the power station was modernised in 2017 back then the station started using low-energy coal from Kyrgyzstan. However, the management of the power station denies it according to the deputy chair of the National Energy Holding Askhat Berdiev, the power station has quality filters and its contribution to air pollution in Bishkek does not exceed 15 per cent. This is partially confirmed by the MoveGreen ecologists opinion according to it, the power station does pollute the air in Bishkek, but not as much as heating in private housing sector.

Bishkek is located in a mountain valley where air pollutants often tend to be trapped in certain areas due to the air current patterns and the nature of the terrain itself, especially during the winter. Some ecologists and architects believe one of the factors contributing to air pollution in Bishkek is building of high-rise buildings in the southern part of Bishkek ignoring the wind circulation.

Bishkek is divided into four administrative districts: Sverdlovsky, Oktyabrsky, Leninsky and Pervomayskiy (Figure 1). The city has 47 residential neighbourhoods in total: 17 in Pervomayskiy District, 14 in Sverdlovsky, 11 in Leninsky and 5 in Oktyabrsky.

Figure 1. Administrative districts of Bishkek

Pervomaykiy District comprises around 13,000 households. Only 15 percent of these households have access to gas heating, with most of the population using coal.

Sverdlovsky District has almost 9,000 households, with only 14 per cent being connected to the gas-heating infrastructure. Air pollution levels are as high as in Pervomayskiy District.

Oktyabrsky District has about 7,000 households, with 30 per cent connected to gas heating. This may be one of the reasons for the lower PM2.5 concentrations during the heating season in the district compared to Pervomayskiy and Sverdlovsky.

Leninsky District consists of approximately 15,000 households, 58 per cent of which are connected to the gas-heating infrastructure.

The peripheral areas of Bishkek to the north and north-west, as well as parts of areas to the west and northeast, have the highest PM2.5 concentrations. These include the residential neighborhoods of Kolmo, Muras-Ordo, Altyn-Beshik, Enesay, Kalys-Ordo, Bakai-Ata, Tynchtyk, Ak-Bosogo and Dordoi. These neighborhoods are in a geographic trough, with air pollutants trapped in cold air underneath a layer of warmer air (temperature inversion). The eastern and southern peripheral parts of Bishkek have less air pollution due to their low population density and better air circulation.

A World Bank study (World Bank, 2015) indicates the following mixture of appliances in households:

Figure 2. Share of appliances in households in Bishkek

Industrial pollution. Solid waste landfill.

Bishkek has a large landfill area. All municipal waste is delivered to the only operational dumpsite in Bishkek the Bishkek Solid Waste Landfill (BSWL). The BSWL has located 12 km to the north of the city center and 300-600 m east of the Ala-Archa reservoir. The site is situated within city limits nearing the Alamedin district of the Chui region. The dumpsite is located on a 36-hectare area to the North of the City with favorable geological and hydrogeological conditions for landfill. However, it is estimated that over the years its dimensions have expanded up to 48 ha. The city landfill site has been operating since 1976. Today, over 1010 tons of solid waste is collected daily in Bishkek, and the country has accumulated more than 100 million tons of waste, which is placed in the BSWL. According to these results, the amount of solid waste per capita ranges from 0.74-1.00 kg.

There are major environmental and social problems associated with the dumpsite. Recyclable wastes (such as plastic and metal wastes) from the wastes brought to the landfill area by garbage trucks are sorted irregularly by people living near this area. The municipal waste is unloaded over a large area, providing easy access by waste pickers. Because it's not surrounded by any fences, currently informal waste picking and sorting take place at the BSWL and a number of informal settlements are located within its sanitary protection zone. Also, the dumped wastes are not compacted or covered by layers of soil, giving easy access to the waste by rats, birds, insects, and dogs for food, breeding, and living in the waste.

The landfill area has a continuous uncontrolled fire that has a strong impact on the air quality in surrounding areas. Therefore, there are methane emissions, a major greenhouse gas, across the landfill area. Moreover, uncontrolled burning of the waste causes many toxic compounds and carcinogenic air pollutants such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons which poses a risk to human health, particularly on the people living nearby. Some light garbage is scattered all over the district near the landfill area, and in the summertime, the stench spreads right up to the shore. Polluted water (landfill leachate) from the site collects in the clay pit to the north of the site and in the pond to the east of the site with a risk of contaminating the Ala-Archa river and groundwater. The large artificial reservoir (it is a surface area of 5.1 km2 and an annual capacity of 39 million m3 ) of the Ala-Archa river is located ~250 m (new landfill of 300 m) to the south of the BSWL landfill location. Bishkek landfill is outside of the geographical scope of the study. However, it is not known whether emissions from the landfill fire impact on air quality in the city.

Air quality assessment and health impacts from major pollution challanges.

Air quality in Bishkek

In 2021, the WHO halved the highest recommended average emission level for PM2.5 from 10 to merely 5 g/m3. The 24-h level changed from 25 g/m3 in 2005 to 15 g/m3. Figure 1 shows the 24-h PM2.5 average levels for 43 months in Bishkek, from October 2019 to July 2022. These concentrations are much higher than the recommended WHO level during most of the year. The seasonal component in the PM2.5 level is significant: in summer, the average level of pollution decreases, while it rises dramatically in winter. Table 2 presents the average 24-h concentrations of other primary ambient air pollutants for December 2020February 2021. All air pollutants exceeded the WHO AQG levels and maximum permissible levels at all analysed monitoring devices. The most polluted month in winter was December. Figure 2 presents average 24-h levels of PM1, PM2.5, PM10, NO2, and AQI from 46 stations in Bishkek for the period of December 29, 2021, to January5,2022.

Figure 1. Air quality in Bishkek based on PM2.5 (microgram/m3) data from the Bishkek US Embassy station, from October 1, 2019 to August 5, 2022.

Table 2. Average 24-h levels of several ambient air pollutants in Bishkek

aMaximum permissible levels established in Kyrgyzstan

Figure 2. Air quality in Bishkek for a week of 29/12/2021-05/01/2022

The data indicate that Bishkek's air quality is hazardous to the city's residents. Between 2015 and 2019, the respiratory diseases incidence among Bishkek residents increased by 30.6% (from 19331.7 to 25238.1 per 100,000). In this period, the incidence of newly registered bronchial asthma almost doubled from 24 to 47 per 100,000, and lung cancer increased from 53 to 74 per 100,000. According to government officials, children under the age of 14 suffered a threefold increase in respiratory diseases compared with adults or adolescents

The air quality impact of the exhaust gasses from the Bishkek CHP plant was analyzed using a mathematical atmospheric Gaussian urban dispersion model UDM-FMI developed by the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) as a part of UNEP, UNDP Kyrgyzstan air quality research.

-38103429000

Figure 2. Sulphur dioxide (SO2) annual

average concentration (g/m). Figure 3. Daily mean concentration (g/m) caused by the Bishkek CHP station

-3810381000 3128010000

Figure 2. Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) annual average concentration (g/m) Figure 3. Daily mean concentration (g/m) caused by the Bishkek CHP station

Figure 2. Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) annual average concentration (g/m) Figure 3. Daily mean concentration (g/m) caused by the Bishkek CHP station

We can see that the impact of the CHP station emissions on the ambient air concentrations of the other pollutants, particulate matter (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2 ), is clearly less than that of SO2 (Table 4). The main conclusion of the dispersion modeling of the CHP station case study is that the Bishkek CHP plant is not the main emission source impacting ground-level pollutant (SO2, PM2.5 and NO2) concentrations in the Bishkek area. There are more significant emission sources than CHP plant, notably from domestic heating that uses sulphur-rich fossil fuel. CHP has a smaller impact on air quality and particularly on the priority pollutants (fine particulate matter and sulphur dioxide) concentrations in the Bishkek area due to higher release height, efficiency of combustion and control equipment installed.

Satelite-based observations

Satellites provide global observations of multiple climate and environmental relevant parameters of the atmosphere, land, and ocean. One of the major advantages is that satellites provide observations over areas where there are no ground observations available, or where the measurement network is sparse. Satellite measurements also facilitate the creation of long time series, and often several parameters can be observed at the same time. This is particularly useful for the case of Bishkek, where long time series do not exist, and where the measurement network has, until very recently, been very sparse.

Figure 38 and 39 show variation of tropospheric NO2 in Bishkek. The NO2 concentrations show a slightly increasing trend from 2005 until 2020. However, the concentration level has remained the same for about 10 years. The concentrations in winter months are higher than during summer-months, probably due to the meteorological conditions.

Figure 38. Annual mean NO2 concentrations in Bishkek for 2005-2020 from the OMI instrument.

Figure 39. Monthly mean tropospheric NO2 in Bishkek from the OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) instrument. July 2020. Figure 3. Monthly mean tropospheric NO2 in Bishkek from the OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) instrument. February 2020.

Health consequences of air pollution

Air pollution is a major cause of non-communicable diseases. It is estimated that at least 3% of cardiopulmonary and 5% of lung cancer deaths are attributable to PM globally. The most recent study on the Global Burden of Disease estimates that 7.5% of deaths globally were attributable to ambient air pollution in 2016. In the same year, 27.5% of deaths due to Lower Respiratory Tract Infections and 26.8% of deaths due to Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Diseases were linked to air pollution. More severe impacts affect people who are already ill. Children, the elderly and poor people are more susceptible.

The assessment of health impacts from pollution in Kyrgyz Republic relies in part on data on deaths and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) from Global Burden of Disease studies conducted by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and the World Health Organization (WHO).

According to the National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic, the total number of deaths in the Kyrgyz Republic amounted to 33,475 in 2016.

Figure 3. Percentage of annual deaths attributable to communicable and non-communicable diseases (1990-2016)

The figure shows that the share of deaths caused by non-communicable diseases (NCDs) increased substantially between 1990 and 2007 but has since levelled off at just below 80%. In 2016 diseases such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, ischemic heart disease, ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke and all cardiovascular diseases caused over 78% of all deaths in the Kyrgyz Republic. In fact, the top three causes of deaths of Kyrgyz citizens in 2016 are related to NCDs. Ischemic heart disease remains the number one cause of death in the Kyrgyz Republic, followed by cerebrovascular disease (often related to ischemic stroke or mini-stroke and hemorrhagic stroke) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) most commonly associated with tobacco smoking. Pollution exposures contribute significantly to deaths and disabilities from non-communicable diseases. In the Kyrgyz Republic, pollution was accountable for almost 14% of all annual deaths in 2016. Figure 4 shows environmental and occupational risks are thus the second most important cause of deaths in the Kyrgyz Republic, topped only by dietary risks (31%). This means that more than 4,500 Kyrgyz citizens die each year due to pollution, more than from tobacco smoking or alcohol and drug use.

Figure 3. Percentage of all annual deaths in Kyrgyz Republic caused by leading risk factors

The following table 4 summarizes the annual deaths in the Kyrgyz Republic from various sources of pollution, in total and as a percentage of all deaths, as estimated in the Global Burden of Disease study.

Pollution Type 2016 Annual Deaths As % of all deaths

Air Household air pollution from solid fuels 1,720 4.78

Ambient particulate matter pollution 2,480 6.89

Total 4,200 11.67

Water Unsafe sanitation 120 0.33

Unsafe water sources 108 0.30

Total 228 0.63

Chemicals Lead 162 0.45

Occupational carcinogens 271 0.75

Total 433 1.2

Table 3. Summary of the annual deaths in the Kyrgyz Republic from various sources of pollution

To see the sensitivity of the population and compare the changes over the years I have made my own simple calculation. The following table shows that the percentage of sensitivity to heart diseases is not high and is about 5%. However, the percentage of sensitivity to respiratory diseases is much higher at 9-10%. The data varies from one region to another, and we see a significant increase in numbers in 2022 in Bishkek city.

Figure 1. Sensitivity of total population

Ez a fejezet bemutatja a dolgozatot olvasja szmra: milyen tmban, milyen cllal rdott, milyen sszefggsben kell rtelmezni stb.

1.2.

1.3.

situational analysis of Bishkek

101346027622500Figure 3. Bishkek City. Location map.

Figure 4. Zoning map

Area

Bishkek City consists of four districts including Chon-Aryk village. The four districts are further divided into 21 sub-districts, which are officially called the Local Territorial Area (LTA). The boundary of these sub-districts was officially defined in 2008. The area for the land use survey was delineated to cover the area analyzed for the preparation of the General Plan 2006, which includes the administrative area of Bishkek City and surroundings. This area covers most of the conurbation areas except for some parts of LTA 14 and LTA 16. The total land area is estimated to be 579 km2.

Figure 5. Current urban structure of Bishkek city

Estimated Population and Number of Households Based on Land Use 2010

The population in 2010 was estimated at 1,117,800 persons in the Study area and 868,556 persons in Bishkek City, respectively, based on the land use map of 2010. However, the population raised significantly since then and Bishkek city 2023 population is now estimated at 1,104,742. According to National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic, census 2022 was finalized at the beginning of 2023 and there is no information when they will be published.

LTA Population Household LTA Population Household LTA Population Household

1 49,523 12,586 8 44,723 13,811 16 24,429 5,680

2 47,130 12,290 9 30,881 8,724 17 50,372 14,519

3 41,926 9,796 10 28,787 8,018 18 52,265 14,651

4 29,640 7,589 11 29,534 8,415 19 36,439 9,401

5 65,643 17,272 12 65,676 20,872 20 44,555 11,752

6 38,881 9,348 13 44,192 12,882 21 21,808 5,050

7 32,004 9,301 14 24,539 6,060 Chon Aryk22,595 5,169

Total in Bishkek City 868,556 233,871

Total in Study Area 1,117,300 295,819

Table3. Estimated Population and Number of Household, 2010. Note: Chon-Aryk village includes LTA 22 and LTA 23 specified in Census 2009.

Figure 6. Average Number of Households per Hectare by Traffic Zone

Figure 7. Estimated population density, 2010

Add Pestel analysis of Bishkek?Methodology

As a result of the previous chapters, a systematic review of the existing evidence on air pollution and its potential health effects has been conducted. Following an understanding of the current literature, research gaps were identified and objectives were set. The methodological approaches used in this research are discussed in detail in this chapter.

Research approaches

There are two main approaches used in research: qualitative and method based on benefit transfer. Benefit transfer is said to be the practice of adapting value estimates from past research to assess the value of a similar, but separate, change in a different resource. In other words, benefit transfer uses previously established values that were estimated for sites with similar characteristics and in similar contexts for application into existing policy decisions. Although benefit transfers have been performed for decades, increased attention has been observed since the method began to become more recognized after a Special Issue of Water Resources Research was published in 1992, which was devoted entirely to the method and sponsored by the Association of Environmental and Resource Economics and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. For my study, I will look at the best samples from other countries.

The qualitative approach often involves collecting information that is more detailed from a smaller number of research participants. Qualitative data is particularly useful for collecting contextual information and for obtaining the research participants emotions and motivation. For my study, I would like to set questionnaire to look for relationships between views expressed and other variables. Due to necessary limitations of sample size and sampling procedure, the survey will not aim to make claims. The questionnaire will be divided into 5 sections covering:

ii) views on air quality

iii) the effects of air quality

v) knowledge and information

vi) particular attitudes

vii) personal information

Literature review and meta-analysis

56692874245Identification of studies via databases and registers

00Identification of studies via databases and registers

303946677064Records removed before screening:

Duplicate records removed (n = )

Records marked as ineligible by automation tools (n = )

Records removed for other reasons (n = )

00Records removed before screening:

Duplicate records removed (n = )

Records marked as ineligible by automation tools (n = )

Records removed for other reasons (n = )

55961377064Records identified from*:

Databases (n = )

Registers (n = )

00Records identified from*:

Databases (n = )

Registers (n = )

-403543222567Identification

00Identification

24542509550

1400175128905

245364032829555943574930Records screened

(n = )

00Records screened

(n = )

304800074930Records excluded**

(n = )

00Records excluded**

(n = )

140017599695

56070547625Reports sought for retrieval

(n = )

00Reports sought for retrieval

(n = )

2463165320675304927066675Reports not retrieved

(n = )

00Reports not retrieved

(n = )

-1160940140495Screening

00Screening

140970056515

247650029464056197513335Reports assessed for eligibility

(n = )

00Reports assessed for eligibility

(n = )

305752510795Reports excluded:

Reason 1 (n = )

Reason 2 (n = )

Reason 3 (n = )

etc.

00Reports excluded:

Reason 1 (n = )

Reason 2 (n = )

Reason 3 (n = )

etc.

140086129667

540385110795Studies included in review

(n = )

Reports of included studies

(n = )

00Studies included in review

(n = )

Reports of included studies

(n = )

-133509170656Included

00Included

Table 1

Characteristics of included SRMAs.

SRMA author Year published Topic Description Region Numerical/Descriptive Source link

World Health Organization (WHO) Health Systems in Action. Edition Kyrgyzstan 2022 Health The source provides core information and data on health systems in Kyrgyzstan as well as disscuss flag key concerns affecting health problems such as air pollution International The data includes both descriptive and numerical information https://apps.who.int/iris/rest/bitstreams/1463895/retrieve

United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) Health and pollution action plan 2019 Health. Air pollution The Health and Pollution Action Plan (HPAP) for the Kyrgyz Republic is the result of collaborative efforts and inputs from different stakeholders including Jogorky Kenesh of the Kyrgyz Republic, Government of the Kyrgyz Republic

International The data includes both descriptive and numerical information https://www.unido.org/sites/default/files/files/2019-10/Kyrgyzstan%20HPAP.English.pdf

United Nations Development Programme in the Kyrgyz Republic and United Nations Environment Programme (UNDP, UNEP)

Air Quality in Bishkek 2022 Air pollution Comprehensive analysis of key emission sources and their impact on ground-level air pollution concentrations in Bishkek International The data includes both descriptive and numerical information https://www.undp.org/kyrgyzstan/publications/air-quality-bishkek-assessment-emission-sources-and-roadmap-supporting-air-quality-management

United Nations International Organization for Migration (UN IOM) Air Pollution and Its Health Impacts on Internal Migrants in Bishkek 2022 Health. Air pollution Study assesses the factors influencing air quality in the view of residents, including internal migrants living in residential neighbourhoods, during the heating season and throughout the year, and the impacts of these factors on their health International The data includes both descriptive and numerical information https://kyrgyzstan.un.org/en/209564-air-pollution-and-its-health-impacts-internal-migrants-bishkek-kyrgyzstan-assessment-report

International International International International International Basic Traffic Conditions (Do nothing approach)

Table 4 illustrates trip share by mode in 2013. Of the person trips (PT), passenger cars account for 87percent of the total number of vehicles when the PT rate is 25 percent. Based on the PT and the number of passenger cars, transportation by passenger cars seems inefficient. The PT rate of minibus utilizations is high at 42 percent and accounts for 98 percent of public transportation by vehicle mode. This shows that passenger cars mainly cause vehicle congestion. The trolleybus accounts for only three percent of the PT and is below one percent of the number of vehicles. Thus, reduction of the number of trips on passenger cars and alternatively using public transportation were studied. As regards public transportation, since the minibus causes traffic congestions at bus stops and on specified roads, (overlapping routes): regulating minibus operations need to be taken.

Mode Passenger

/ Vehicle Person trip/day

(Bishkek City Zone 1-61) Vehicle trip/day

(All Zones 1-98)

Passenger capacity Trip No. Share PT Share Trip No. (%)

1. Trolleybus 28.2 72,181 3.2% 7.0% 3,194 0.3%

2. Midibus27 27,750 1.2% 2.6% 8,619 0.9%

3. Minibus 17 934,832 42.0% 90.4% 94,119 9.8%

Total (Public Transport: PT) 46.5% 100.0% 4. Truck 1.3 3,171 0.1% - 12,966 1.4%

5. Passenger Car 1.5 560,234 25.2% - 839,550 87.6%

6. Walk - 629,316 28.3% - Total 100.0% 100.0% 958,448 100.0%

Table 4. Trip Share by Mode in 2013.

Source: JICA Study Team

Alterative Scenarios

Scenario 1 (narrow solution) is a basic strategy and alternative scenario, a modal shift from passenger car utilization to public transport utilization. Initially, the minibuses operated by private companies must be changed to buses, which will reduce the number of vehicles and trips, hence mitigating congestion on the minibus routes. It will entail a big slice of the citys budget and much time until full-scale operations utilizing new trolleybuses can come into consideration. Additionally, the minibus currently overloads or takes passengers way over allowable passenger numbers. Increasing the size of buses would contribute to better service and passenger safety.

Scenario 2 (narrow solution) is set to improve the operational efficiency of new trolleybuses by repairs and extension of its operational routes. A modal shift from passenger cars to trolleybus is to be encouraged. Factors include review of distance between bus stops, punctual operation with use of timetable, an information system or schedule of buses and a park-and-ride scheme. The use of passenger cars will be limited with a control on parking lots, zonal and road spaces - based on time - need to be established. Initiate restricting regulations and implement a ban on driving in the city-center on gas-powered vehicles made prior to 2000 and diesel vehicles made prior to 2006.

Scenario 3 (broader solution)

Table 5 shows a summary of alterative scenarios in consideration of the issues described above.

Scenario Objective Measures Effects

Scenario 0 Do-nothing No As usual

Scenario 1 Using high occupancy bus for small minibus Small minibus trip share to big buses Reduce the number of minibus trips.

Scenario 2 Modal shift to trolleybus. Ban of cars in the city center. Vehicle trip share of trolleybus. Reduction of passenger car trips. Increase trolleybus users. Contributing to Kyrgyzstans climate change mitigation efforts and the transition to a green economic model of development. This scenario will help to reach the countrys declared goal of reducing emissions of greenhouse gases

Table 5. Summary of alternative scenarios.