Fitting and evaluating time series models DATA4400
- Subject Code :
DATA4400
|
SubjectCode: |
DATA4400 |
|
SubjectName: |
Data-drivenForecasting |
|
AssessmentTitle: |
Fittingandevaluatingtimeseriesmodels |
|
Assessment Type: |
Individual:In-class15%;Quiz(15%) |
|
WordCount: |
n/a Words (+/-10%) |
|
Weighting: |
30% |
|
TotalMarks: |
30 |
|
Submission: |
Individualreport: 1.IndividualreportviaTurnitin 2.DatafilesviaDropbox Quizviaportal |
|
DueDate: |
In-ClassWeek12 Quiz:Week12 |
YourTasks
- Part A:Quiz(45minutes):AnswermultiplechoicequestionsbasedonWorkshops1to11
- Part B:InClass(2hours):ComparefittingaSARIMAmodeltofittinganARMAmodelto residuals from a Prophet model, for a time series. Discuss the insights and applications.
AssessmentDescription
PartAQuiz:
- At the start of your class, you will launch the quiz through
- Once students start the quiz, they will have 45 minutes to complete multiple-choice
Youwillthenhavea10-minutebreakandPartBoftheassessmentwillstartatthebeginningofthe 2ndhour of class.
PartBIn-classtest:
Atime series will be given to you in class in Week 12, together with specific questions to answer. YoucanuseeitherExploratory,Orange,orPythonwithExcel.Thequestionsshouldbeansweredin a Word document that you upload through Turnitin.
InclassinWeek12 Part A Quiz:
- You will enter the Attempt Quiz on MyKBS at the beginning of your class in
- Answer all multiple-choice
- Once you start the quiz you will have 45 minutes to complete
- The quiz can only be attempted
Part BTest:
Yourfacilitatorwillprovideyouwithadatasetandaseriesofquestionstoanswer.Youwillcreatea Word document with the answers to questions. You will have two hours to complete the test.
- Fit a seasonal ARIMA model to the time series and provide a plot of the time series together with predictions. Plot the act of the residuals. [ 4 Marks]
- Fit a Prophet model to the timeObtain the remainders from the Prophet model, fit an ARMA model to these remainders and plot the remainder series together with predictions. [ 4 Marks]
- Answers to the questions about the interpretation of the results of your[ 7 Marks]
Submit your Microsoft Word file via the Turnitin portal + zip your data files and submit them via the FileSubmissionportal.Uploadingfilestotheincorrectplaceornotuploadingthedatafileslate/atall will be treated as poor project management practice and penalised accordingly.
GenerativeAITrafficLights
PleaseseethelevelofGenerativeAIthatthisassessmenthasbeendesignedtoaccept:
|
TrafficLight |
Amount of Generative Artificial Intelligence(GenerativeAI)usage |
EvidenceRequired |
Thisassessment (?) |
|
Level1 |
Prohibited: NoGenerativeAIallowed This assessment showcases your individual knowledge, skills and/or personalexperiencesintheabsenceof Generative AI support. |
The use of generative AI isprohibitedfor this assessmentandmaypotentiallyresultinpenaltiesfor academic misconduct, including but not limited to a mark of zero for the assessment. |
? |
|
Level2 |
Optional: YoumayuseGenerativeAIforresearch and content generation that is appropriately referenced. Seeassessmentinstructionsfordetails This assessment allows you to engage with Generative AI as a means of expanding your understanding, creativity, andideagenerationintheresearchphase of your assessment and to produce content that enhances your assessment. I.e., images.You do not have to use it. |
TheuseofGenAIisoptionalforthisassessment. YourcollaborationwithGenerativeAImustbeclearly referencedjust as you would reference any other resourcetypeused.Clickonthelinkbelowtolearn how to reference GenerativeAI. https://library.kaplan.edu.au/referencing-other-sources/referencing-other-sources-generative-ai In addition, youmustinclude an appendix that documentsyourGenerativeAIcollaborationincluding allpromptsandresponsesusedfortheassessment. UnapproveduseofgenerativeAIasperassessment details during the content generation parts of your assessment may potentially result in penalties for academic misconduct, including but not limited to a mark of zero for the assessment. Ensure you follow the specific assessment instructions in the section above. |
|
|
Level3 |
Compulsory: YoumustuseGenerativeAItocomplete your assessment Seeassessmentinstructionfordetails This assessment fully integrates GenerativeAI,allowingyoutoharnessthe technology's full potential in collaboration with your own expertise. Always check your assessment instructionscarefullyastheremaystillbe limitationsonwhatconstitutesacceptable use, and these may be specific to each assessment. |
YouwillbetaughthowtousegenerativeAIand assessed on its use. Your collaboration with GenerativeAImust be clearly referencedjust as you would reference any other resourcetypeused.Clickonthelinkbelowtolearn how to reference GenerativeAI. https://library.kaplan.edu.au/referencing-other-sources/referencing-other-sources-generative-ai In addition, youmustinclude an appendix that documentsyourGenerativeAIcollaborationincluding allpromptsandresponsesusedfortheassessment. UnapproveduseofgenerativeAIasperassessment details during the content generation parts of your assessment may potentially result in penalties for academic misconduct, including but not limited to a mark of zero for the assessment. Ensure you follow the specific assessment instructions in the section above. |
MarkingRubric
AmoredetailedoutlineofthemarkswillbeprovidedinthebriefinW12classtesttime.
|
Criteria |
Excellent(FullMarks) |
Satisfactory(PartialMarks) |
NeedsImprovement (Few/No Marks) |
|
Fit a seasonal ARIMA model and provide time series and residual ACF plots (4 Marks) |
-SARIMAmodel is correctlyfitted with clear justification for chosen parameters. |
- SARIMA model is fitted but with partial/unclearjustification for parameters. |
-SARIMAmodelis incorrectly fitted or missing. |
|
-High-quality plots with clear labelling. |
- Time series and prediction plots are provided but may lack clarity or detail (e.g., missinglabelsorlegends). |
-Plotsoftimeseries and predictions are incomplete or unclear. |
|
|
FitaProphetmodel, obtain and model remainders with ARMA, and provide plots (4Marks) |
- Residuals are correctly extracted fromProphetmodels. |
- Prophet residuals areextractedbutARMA model fitting is only partially accurate. |
-Residualsarenot properlyextractedfrom Prophet models. |
|
- ARMA model is well-fitted with clear explanationofchosen parameters. |
-ARMAmodelis incorrectly fitted or missing. |
||
|
Interpretationof modeling results (7Marks) |
-Thoroughand insightfuldiscussion of findings. |
-Adequatediscussion of findings but lacks depth or insight. |
- Minimal or no discussionoffindings. |
|
- Clear interpretation of resultsfromforecasts. |
-Resultsfrommodels are mentioned, but interpretation may be unclear. |
- No meaningful interpretationofresults. |
Afailmarkwillbeawardedforthissection:
- if there is evidence of the use of generative AI, contract cheating and/or other forms of academic misconduct.
- if a quantitative model is not presented and only qualitative discussions are
- If you present generic/irrelevant information/not addressed assessment
|
Quiz Selectcorrectmultiple-choiceanswers. |
15 |
Computerisedmarking |
Note 1: A penalty will be awarded if any part of the assessment is deemed by the assessor where it shows an over- reliance on AI-generated content in your answer. There needs to be a demonstration of original thought.
IfyouwanttochallengethepenaltyawardedbasedonNote1,yourassessmentwillbesubmittedtoAcademicIntegrityfor a second opinion and further investigations.
ImportantStudyInformation
AcademicIntegrityPolicy
KBS valuesacademic integrity. All students must understand the meaning and consequences of cheating, plagiarism and other academic offences under the Academic Integrity and Conduct Policy.
What is academic integrity and misconduct?Whatarethepenaltiesforacademicmisconduct? What are the late penalties?
HowcanIappealmygrade?
Click here for answers to these questions:http://www.kbs.edu.au/current-students/student-policies/.
WordLimitsforWrittenAssessments
Submissionsthatexceedthewordlimitbymorethan10%willceasetobemarkedfromthepointat which that limit is exceeded.
StudyAssistance
StudentsmayseekstudyassistancefromtheirlocalAcademicLearningAdvisororrefertothe resources on the MyKBSAcademic Success Centre page. Clickhere for this information.
