Managing global instability

MODULE 6 UNIT 3

2021 LSE

789305104076500

Table of contents

Introduction3Defining security in the 21st century3The evolution of international security4Conflict and economic development6Economic growth theory7Institutional strength7Recovery trends8Approaches to managing regional instability9Multilateralism and intervention9Advantages of multilateralism10Challenges of multilateralism10Political settlements11Economic development12Inclusive growth12Peacebuilding12Improved conflict sensitivity13Communities and economic development in post-conflict situations14The international community15The role of international organisations15UN Security Council16Department for International Development (DFID)16International Peace Institute (IPI)17Crisis Management Initiative (CMI)17The role of businesses and the private sector17Conclusion19Bibliography19Learning outcomes:

LO3: Interpret the state of global security in the 21st century.

LO4: Choose approaches to managing conflict and regional instability.

LO5: Articulate how global problems undermine economic potential and the role of business leaders in managing global instability.

Learning outcomes:

LO3: Interpret the state of global security in the 21st century.

LO4: Choose approaches to managing conflict and regional instability.

LO5: Articulate how global problems undermine economic potential and the role of business leaders in managing global instability.

Introduction

As states become progressively enmeshed, conflict and instability increasingly transcend national borders. This has transformed the nature of the search for peace, as issues of security continually evolve, and the ability of state and non-state actors to manage the changing dynamics of contemporary conflict. To grapple with these complex problems, researchers have embarked on substantial analysis of the best approaches to managing conflict in the modern world. This research has also seen the creation of many different approaches to the promotion of peace that aim to assist both international and regional actors in devising appropriate forms of intervention, be it through conflict mediation or international peacekeeping.

This set of notes explores the challenges of defining security, by examining how security issues have evolved in the 21st century. It also looks at how global insecurity and conflict impacts economic development and growth during the post-conflict recovery process, and the various approaches to managing regional instability at an international and regional level. In this context, international organisations have played an important role as mediators of peace negotiations and facilitators of peace and stability through peacekeeping and post-conflict activism. Finally, these notes discuss the role of business and the private sector during peace negotiations that require a commitment to stability from all relevant state and non-state actors.

Defining security in the 21st century

The state of global security in the latter half of the 20th century came to be known as the era of Pax Americana a period of relative stability and peace between the US, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) and their European allies overseen by the hegemonic power of America. The collapse of the USSR was followed by a twenty-year period of US unipolarity, but with the rise of China and other centres of power the world is on course to become a more multipolar system, no longer governed by the economic and political might of America alone. This has had important ramifications for global security and stability, and has caused academics to question the orthodox definition of security as understood in the field of international relations.

Traditionally, the definition focused on national security, which was often characterised exclusively in military terms. However, recent critics argue that the concept needs to be

more broadly defined in light of globalisation and should include political, societal, environmental, and economic dimensions (Baylis, 2017:239).

1153160155575An agenda for peace:

The United Nations (UN) understood the significance of the end of the Cold War and its impact of international peacekeeping. They requested that the UN secretary-general Boutros Boutros-Ghali compile a report in order to chart the direction of peacebuilding after the collapse of the USSR. This report became known as An Agenda for Peace. Not only did Boutros-Ghali call for greater interstate collaboration through multilateralism, but he advocated for the installation of democratic institutions as a pillar of post-conflict reconstruction. This approach came to be called building liberal peace. He also recognised that definitions of security and stability extended to include ecological damage [and] disruption of family and community life (Boutros-Ghali, 1992).

00An agenda for peace:

Geopolitical developments, the reshaping of national borders, and the increasing fragmentation of the nation state mean that attention should be paid not only at the ethno- national and societal level, but also at the global level (Baylis, 2017:240). As conflict and war expands beyond the domain of the state, non-state actors are becoming more important within the international system. These factors illustrate the complexities within the international system today, and the challenges in defining security. Globalisation has revolutionised the way states interact with one another, which has increased security issues at an economic, social, political, and environmental level. It is no longer suitable to define security exclusively in military terms, and policymakers will need to understand security more broadly if they are to implement effective policies.

1153160156210Alternative perspective:

Jonathan Friedman, an American anthropologist, argues that the current state of the international system is highly complex. The world is one where polarization, both vertical and horizontal, both class and ethnic, has become rampant, and where violence has become more globalized and fragmented at the same time, and is no longer a question of wars between states but of sub-state conflicts, globally networked and financed, in which states have become one actor, increasingly privatized, amongst others (Friedman, 2003:ix).

00Alternative perspective:

The evolution of international security

As discussed, academics are calling for the redefinition of security in light of global geopolitical changes in the 21st century. This issue is explored further in Video 1, an engaging TEDx talk by Shannon Zimmerman, a PhD researcher at the University of Queensland. In this talk, she discusses how definitions of peace and security within the international community have changed, and how this has been reflected in the evolution of the UN peacekeeping activities.

Video 1: The evolution of security and peacebuilding. (Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=50CGTTeNtq8)

Zimmerman raises an important point about security in the 21st century. The definition of security has evolved from focusing on the protection of the state and national sovereignty to focusing on the protection of popular sovereignty, including freedom of speech, democracy, and the protection of human rights. Popular sovereignty has become an international concern, and, through the promulgation of the doctrine of Responsibility to Protect (see below), the UN is increasingly being mobilised to support this principle. This modern conception of security calls on governments to not only govern their citizens, but also protect and guarantee their human rights. This changing definition of security clearly illustrates the predominance of liberal ideas of freedom and democracy in the wake of American hegemony. The recent promotion a China Model of Development by Xi Jinping, coupled to the alleged destabilisation of elections in Western democracies by Russian sources and rise of populism in the West, suggests that this triumphantalism of the liberal order is being contested by authoritarian states.

1153160154940Peace in the 21st century:

In the TEDx talk by Shannon Zimmerman, she posed some important questions: What would a secure world look like in the 21st century? Is it possible for peace and security to coexist? She asked, If this is a peace we must enforce, is it the kind of peace that is going to stay? (TEDx Talks, 2016). Reflecting on this comment, answer the following poll question:

00Peace in the 21st century:

Poll 1: In your opinion, how likely is it for peace to remain if it is enforced by the international community? Access this set of notes on the Online Campus to participate in the poll and view your peers responses.

1153160162560Note:

Members of the international community use the term fragile contexts to describe areas that are at risk for conflict. A fragile context is one characterised by the existence of a fragile state. In this environment, the state is considered untrustworthy and there is a poor relationship between the state and society. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) argues that in this context, the state has weak capacity to carry out basic functions of governing a population and its territory, and lacks the ability to develop mutually constructive and reinforcing relations with society (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development [OECD], 2010:12).

00Note:

Conflict and economic development

Conflict and instability has a dramatic impact on the economic development of a region, which then often takes years to recover from instances of civil war, terrorism, and political and social instability. The rise of civil conflict, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa, has spurred new research into the relationship between conflict and economic development, identifying a strong negative association between conflict and economic development (Serneels & Verpoorten, 2012:2). However, what makes analysis of this relationship difficult is that the opposite can be equally true, as an economy may also profit from war in the sense that it mobilises national resources to full production capacity as was the case in the United States in WWII.

Economic growth theory

Economic theorists are divided on the rate of post-conflict recovery. On the one hand, neoclassical growth theory finds that a country can quickly recover after periods of instability and reach convergence. This was the case in Japan, Germany, and Vietnam in the 20th century, whose capital stocks returned to their pre-war levels within one or two decades after conflict had ended (Blattman, 2010:3; Serneels & Verpoorten, 2012:2). Other studies find that the recovery rate can be much slower because human capital takes a substantial time to recover, and countries can be trapped in a low-level equilibrium where conflict and poor performance coexist (Serneels & Verpoorten, 2012:2). In post-colonial countries which have low levels of development to begin with, recovery is further inhibited by structural constraints such as poor infrastructure, weak institutions, limited financial resources and low levels of human capital.

There has been little consensus among economists about the relationship between conflict and economic development, because unique contextual variances like the time of conflict impact the relationship between conflict and economic performance (Serneels & Verpoorten, 2012:2; McIntosh & Buckley, 2015:1).

Institutional strength

One factor that seems to influence the rate of post-conflict recovery is the strength of government institutions installed in the period following a conflict. Christopher Blattman, an economist and political scientist, in his paper Post-conflict recovery in Africa: The micro- level, illustrates the significance of institutions clearly. Blattman argues the following:

If a nation emerges from war more politically stable, or better governed, than before, then capital will not only rebound, but could exceed its previous levels and growth in the new investment climateOn the other hand, weak regimes supported by foreign powers, or warring factions held in an unsteady equilibrium solely through peacekeeping forces and power- sharing agreements, could diminish the investment climate.

(Blattman, 2010:3)

What Blattman makes clear is that political stability and the quality of institutions play an important role in fostering economic growth. Uganda during the 1980s and Rwandas development after 1994 are both examples where well-organised rebel forces gained political power, creating conditions for stability. This, coupled with economic reforms, allowed both countries to recover during the post-conflict era (Blattman, 2010:3). The Ivory Coast after the signing of a government of national unity in 2002 and Syria after the civil war that began in 2011 are both examples where weak regimes were not only unable to bring stability to their countries but whose continuing failure to do so allowed other political forces to step in and challenge their authority.

Recovery trends

While much remains to be achieved in the study of conflict and development, research from several scholars indicate the following relationships between conflict and economic performance:

Consumption is low in regions that have experienced intense conflict, because the recovery of human capital is slower than the recovery of physical capital (Serneels & Verpoorten, 2012:22).

Recovery depends on the type of conflict experienced. For example, the rates of recovery after instances of genocide and civil war are different. Genocide results in massive deaths across the targeted population which can be construed in economic terms as large losses of human capital, while civil war is associated with greater losses of physical capital, which is easier to recover (Serneels & Verpoorten, 2012:23).

Conflict in a region is reduced if there are high per capita incomes and economic growth (McIntosh & Buckley, 2015:4).

Corruption and mismanagement within large businesses (particularly those who control and manage substantial infrastructure or natural resources) increases the likelihood of conflict (McIntosh & Buckley, 2015:5).

The recovery of a skilled and educated labour force is slower than the recovery of physical capital. If a large portion of the population is killed, a country may need to wait an entire generation to regain its post-conflict skill levels. A large loss of wealth may also reduce the likelihood of individuals returning to the education system. This has a significant impact on the skilled labour force (Blattman, 2010:4).

War and conflict causes extensive physical damage to a population. This can reduce access to adequate nutrition, stunting growth. This physical damage, which reduces life expectancies, can also lower cognitive functions and decrease productivity rates. It should be noted that this impact can be significantly reduced if medical relief is provided quickly (Blattman, 2010:4).

1149985158115The resource curse:

The resource curse, also known as the paradox of plenty, refers to instances where countries have a large stock of natural resources, but have also experienced slow economic growth, instability, and low development outcomes in comparison to other resource-rich states. Studies have shown that resource-rich countries with large fossil fuel or mineral deposits are more susceptible to conflict, civil war, and corruption. This has been the case in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Afghanistan, and Nigeria; they have all experienced high levels of conflict and instability despite an abundance of natural resources (McIntosh & Buckley, 2015:5).

00The resource curse:

8013708919210Responsibility to protect:

00Responsibility to protect:

Nigeria, for instance, has an abundance of oil reserves, a key trading commodity within the global economy. However, this has not encouraged inclusive growth in the region. Instead, the oil reserves have only fuelled conflict and instability, particularly in the Niger Delta, where the majority of Nigerias oil is extracted to the benefit of a narrow governing elite. In this region, the relationship between the state and the local population has become more and more volatile. The local community has become increasingly angered at the lack of economic and social improvement in the region.

The World Bank estimates that corruption in Nigeria creates a situation where 80 per cent of the oil revenue benefits only 1 per cent of the population (Global Poverty Project, 2012). This has led to the formation of a militant group called the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), which aims to sabotage production and oil extraction in the region. Environmental security is also under threat, as government records reveal that over 7,000 oil spills have occurred in the area between 1970 and 2000 (Global Poverty Project, 2012).

The situation in Nigeria illustrates the complexities of conflict and economic development. It also supports the argument that corruption and mismanagement within large businesses (particularly those that control and manage substantial infrastructure or natural resources) increase the likelihood of conflict (McIntosh & Buckley, 2015:5).

Approaches to managing regional instability

When discussing the state of international security, it is helpful to understand some key methods and principles that are used within the international community to manage and promote international and regional stability.

Multilateralism and intervention

There is a continuing debate among the international community about the methods, purpose, and principles of peacekeeping in the 21st century. Nevertheless, multilateralism (an agreement between one or more parties, usually governments within an international organisation, in pursuit of a mutual goal) is one method that academics and researchers have suggested as a way to resolve global issues of insecurity effectively. According to Thierry Tardy, a previous faculty member of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy and a leading researcher on military and civilian crisis management:

Peace operations suffer from a commitment gap between different categories of states, divergences on some of the key parameters of interventions, and a normative disconnect between established and new state actorsYet needs for peacekeeping and peacebuilding remain high, even as the operations are increasingly contested by host countries and challenged in their efficacy by a combination of overstretch and weak political support.

(Tardy, 2011)

An example of effective multilateralism is the global commitment and endorsement by all UN member states in 2005 to adopt the principle of the responsibility to protect (R2P), which aimed to prevent the spread of genocide, protect individuals against war crimes, and uphold individual human rights internationally. Designed as a framework of methods, this principle lays out the conditions for international action to preserve and protect the human rights where states neglect or systematically violate these rights.

Advantages of multilateralism

In an analysis of the literature that surrounds the importance of multilateralism, Brigitte Rohwerder from the GSDRC, a research and knowledge management centre, has found the following:

Individual actors are increasingly unable to solve peace and security issues alone.

Multilateral alliances are increasing, which research suggests promotes more effective operations.

There is a symbiotic relationship between international and regional actors who engage in multilateralism. This has been the case with the UN and various regional organisations. In this context, the regional actors gain legitimacy and support from the UN mandate, while the UN gains a regional partner with a nuanced understanding of the regional context.

Challenges of multilateralism

(Rohwerder, 2014:2)

However, Rohwerder has also raised some important points about the challenges of multilateralism that are present in the literature, as follows:

Coordination and agreement are increasingly institutionalised at the international organisation level, but this does not always successfully translate into efficient peacekeeping on the ground. This was the case in peacekeeping initiatives in Kosovo and the DRC, where EU-UN action was not as successfully implemented at a regional level.

The relationship between international organisations, like the UN, and regional organisations is not always amicable. For instance, researchers, including Tardy, have suggested that the EU is selective in its alliances, and its lack of UN representation undermines the sustainability of peacekeeping operations and alliances.

Organisational politics and inter-institutional rivalry undermine multilateral agreements. Competition, misunderstanding, and lack of consensus pose challenges to cooperation and coordination.

Organisations are often reluctant to share information, which potentially limits the effectiveness of peacekeeping activities.

Responses to crises within the multilateral system are often ad hoc and reactive, as was the case with the Ebola crisis.

(Rohwerder, 2014:2-3)

Despite these challenges, multilateralism is a key method for ensuring international peace in an increasingly complex and integrated international environment, where crime and instability have the ability to transcend national borders.

1154430155575Multilateralism in action:

The security situation in Mali, which began when civil war broke out between the north and south in January 2012, illustrates the challenges of international peacekeeping. The violence and instability fuelled by rebel forces in 2012 caused the Mali government to seek international support. As a result, French and African Union (AU) forces were brought in to bring calm to the region.

Initially, the peace agreement that was signed on 18 June 2013 was hailed as a victory for multilateral cooperation (Rohwerder, 2014:2). However, in September 2013, the rebels withdrew from the peace agreement, and levels of conflict and instability rose again. As a result, the international community became increasingly involved and managed to organise a ceasefire in 2015. Nevertheless, accelerated terrorist activities, increased levels of transnational crime, and slow international responses are proving to be serious challenges to achieving peace in 2017.

To understand the complex relationship between the various regional and international organisations involved in Mali, read the summary of the UN security council meeting held in April 2017. In this article, the peacekeeping chief tells the security council that greater international support is needed in targeted areas and in enhancing capacity for successful intervention.

00Multilateralism in action:

1153160144145Further reading:

During a panel discussion in May 2017, former UN secretary-general Kofi Annan and other UN Elders argued that multilateral diplomacy was key to ensuring global peace and security in the 21st century. To engage with their discussion further, read the International Peace Institutes article on the role of multilateralism in building sustained peace.Dennis Jett, an expert on UN peacekeeping missions, offers a timely criticism of the failures of peacekeeping missions in Africa, and the need to build more resilient institutions for improved governance.

00Further reading:

Political settlements

Political settlements are agreements, usually among political and economic elites, to commit to and uphold shared goals. This process of negotiation can involve both state and

non-state actors, including civil society. While some see political settlement as an endpoint, others identify political settlement as a process. Whaites (2008) defines political settlement as the forging of a common understanding, usually among elites, that their interests or beliefs are served by a particular way of organising political power.

However, as McIntosh and Buckley (2015:3) point out, the nature of the settlement depends on the inclusion or exclusion of each of these groups. If done successfully, settlements can improve political stability, create economic growth, and ensure inclusive recovery and development. Analysing political settlements and the various actors involved also helps policymakers and analysts understand the agency and power of each group during negotiations. Dennis Jett argues that the international community needs to be prepared to use aid as an instrument to both incentivise and compel state and non-state actors to comply with the terms of political settlements (Jett, 2020).

Economic development

Individuals and organisations involved in conflict areas argue that one of the key strategies to help increase the rate of post-conflict recovery is economic development. Economic development is the successful achievement of long-term growth, which is combined with economic reforms that benefit the poor by creating structures that distribute wealth broadly. To do this, countries need to create an economic environment that encourages private investment. This is achieved through strong institutions that manage and maintain national infrastructure and resources (McIntosh & Buckley, 2015:2).

Inclusive growth

Those involved in post-conflict recovery also argue that economic growth must be inclusive. Inclusive growth is the absolute reduction of poverty in an area through the creation of jobs rather than merely income redistribution initiatives. The economic environment must encourage investment through the presence of fair regulatory systems for the private sector, which in turn can provide businesses and labour with better access to markets and resources (McIntosh & Buckley, 2015:2).

Peacebuilding

Another important initiative that encourages stability is the promotion of peacebuilding activities. Peacebuilding focuses on the immediate suppression of violence and conflict within a region by supporting communities at a local level. The United Nations (UN) defines peacebuilding as:

A range of measures targeted to reduce the risk of lapsing or relapsing into conflict by strengthening national capacities at all levels for conflict management, and to lay the foundations for sustainable peace and development.

(United Nations [UN], n.d.b)

The UN also argues that peacebuilding strategies must take the local context into consideration, and should be adjusted to meet the needs of the community in question.

They should also be based on national ownership, and should comprise a carefully prioritized, sequenced, and relatively narrow set of activities that encourage the successful achievement of peace and stability (UN, n.d.b).

Improved conflict sensitivity

Conflict sensitivity refers to the ability of an organisation engaging in activities in areas of conflict or potential conflict to understand the nuances of the environment in which they are operating, in particular the tensions between the various interest groups. By doing this, an organisation can help improve social bonds and prevent further violence. An understanding of these nuances may help mitigate the risk of an organisation adding to further division within a community, and maximise the potential for further social cooperation and peace (Kompetenzzentrum Friedensfrderung [KOFF], 2012:1).

The recognition of the need for greater conflict sensitivity has arisen due to instances where humanitarian aid and peacebuilding initiatives have fuelled tension rather than encouraged peace. As a result, various stakeholders have highlighted a need for organisations operating in conflict areas to be sensitive to the local context so as to ensure that peace initiatives are successfully implemented (KOFF, 2012:1).

According to the Conflict Sensitivity Consortium, a conflict-sensitive approach would be one that:

[I]nvolves gaining a sound understanding of the two-way interaction between activities and context, and acting to minimise negative impacts and maximise positive impacts of intervention on conflict within an organisations given priorities/objectives (mandate).

(Conflict Sensitivity Consortium [CSC], n.d.a)

1149985152400Conflict sensitivity in action:

One example of conflict sensitivity in action can be found in the conflict analysis conducted in 2008 by a development agency that was contracted to build a road between a rural district and Bujumbura, the capital of Burundi. The project director, having done research on the area, discovered that the project might cause local conflict and negatively impact the local community (CSC, 2015).

For example, the local community might not be pleased that the road would give the government greater access to their area. Homes situated near the planned road might need to be moved, and if this was the case, consideration would need to be given to whether ethnic conflict would occur if groups were relocated. Communication and proper consultation with the communities would also need to be considered to avoid unrest. In addition to this, the agency considered whether the roadworks would cause conflict between groups who sought to gain from the employment opportunities the project would bring to the area (CSC, 2015).

This example illustrates how an organisation operating in a fragile context can adopt a conflict-sensitivity approach to their operations to avoid negatively impacting the community in question. If you would like to find out how an organisation can implement

00Conflict sensitivity in action:

conflict sensitivity, the Conflict Sensitivity Consortium has published a how-to guide to conflict sensitivity.

Communities and economic development in post- conflict situations

The World Bank (WB) has established a strategy that local governments can adopt to stimulate economic recovery and growth. While this strategy is not specifically targeted at conflict recovery, the principles of the initiative can be used to foster economic development at a local level in various contexts. This strategy is called a local economic development (LED) strategy. LED strategies are designed to promote economic growth and improve living standards in a local area. The strategy is designed to build cooperative relationships between the public, private, and non-governmental sectors to stimulate economic recovery. As a broad approach to economic growth, LED combines physical planning, environmental planning, business development, infrastructure provision, financing, and marketing, at a government and private sector level. A key goal of LED strategies is to enhance an areas economic competitiveness by encouraging investment, and this is best achieved when incorporated with local government strategies (World Bank, 2016a).

Local communities can use a variety of approaches to implement their LED strategy. Figure 1 illustrates some of these approaches.

1539775196748

Figure 1: LED strategy approaches. (Source: World Bank, 2016a)

1149985152400LED case studies:

The World Bank has compiled a number of LED case studies in order to share information about how other communities have implemented LED strategies to varying degrees of success.

00LED case studies:

The World Bank has compiled a number of LED case studies in order to share information about how other communities have implemented LED strategies to varying degrees of success.

For example, the WB partnered with Open Society Institute (OSI) in Albania to implement a pilot program to reform institutional and policy frameworks at a local level. Having piloted the Developing Economies Locally Through Action and Alliance (DELTA) programme, the WB and OSI found that the programme had achieved its goal of creating a business-enabling environment. This was done by building local capacity, utilising training workshops, using expert facilitators to provide guidance at a municipal level, and creating forums for key stakeholders to present their priorities for the implementation of LED strategies (Budds, n.d.:16-17, 57).

If you would like to examine other examples of LED initiatives, explore the WB LED case studies online.

The international community

The following section will examine some of the international institutions, national development agencies and non-governmental organisations that have been created to promote peace and development globally. It is important to consider whether these organisations have been a force for positive change or whether their involvement in regional conflict only serves to magnify and enhance regional instability.

The role of international organisations

A number of international organisations like the UN, World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have played important roles in assisting countries that have suffered from the impact of war, forced displacement, and political unrest. These institutions offer technical and financial support to help countries recover from the devastating impact of conflict. To tackle the complexity of managing transitions from conflict to stability (and long- lasting peace), they often need to partner with a range of national development organisations as well as peace and development-oriented NGOs to address these difficult conditions. Watch the following video, which illustrates the IMFs role in post-conflict recovery. The video not only shows the long-lasting impact of conflict on an economy, but also suggests actions policymakers can take to stimulate growth.

Video 2: How the IMF assists in conflict recovery. (Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GMjTgfVOGtM)

UN Security Council

The UN Security Council was established to promote international peace and security. Made up of 15 member states, decisions made by the council need to be upheld by all members. It identifies instances of unrest and will help facilitate the settlement of a conflict. The council, however, is also prepared to use force and impose sanctions on states in order to restore peace to the international system (UN, n.d.c).

1153160155575UN Charter:

Chapter VII of the UN charter outlines the responsibilities and actions that member states are expected to take with respect to threats to the peace, breaches of the peace, and actions of aggression (UN, n.d.a). Read through Chapter VII to gain further insight into the responsibilities of UN member states.

00UN Charter:

Department for International Development (DFID)

Following a trend in many parts of the traditional aid sector, the Department for International Development (DFID) was merged with the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) in 2020, As a government department in the United Kingdom (UK), DFID was dedicated to the administration and management of overseas humanitarian aid. In its new configuration, the FCDO focuses on promoting sustainable development and eliminating global poverty in line with UK policy, The department continues to work with states in the areas of health, education, environmental protection, social services, research, and the economic sector (FDCO, n.d.; van te Velde, 2020).

International Peace Institute (IPI)

Founded in 1970 and based in New York, the International Peace Institute (IPI) is a research and policy think tank. The IPI was originally created to train the diplomats and military officials who were responsible for conducting peacekeeping missions for the UN. However, the organisation has shifted its focus to research and analysis, specialising in multilateralism and the relationship between states, civil society, and the private sector (International Peace Institute, n.d.)

Crisis Management Initiative (CMI)

The Crisis Management Initiative (CMI) is a non-governmental organisation (NGO) established in 2000 by the former Finnish president and Nobel Peace Prize winner Martti Ahtisaari. The CMI is one of the leading global institutions in the field of peace brokerage. Due to the significant unrest in the developing world, the CMI focuses its attention on promoting peace in:

The Middle East;

North Africa;

Eurasia; and

Sub-Saharan Africa.

(Crisis Management Initiative [CMI], n.d.)

The CMI has identified that mediation and dialogue are the most effective tools for establishing peace and resolving conflict. Acting as an independent body, they assist local governments and international institutions through establishing peaceful relations. This is hugely beneficial in the complex and tension-riddled environment of peace negotiations, as independent organisations bring to the negotiating table not only their own wealth of experience and expertise, but also opportunities that are not always open to state-related bodies (CMI, n.d.).

1153160155575Explore further:

If you would like to understand the work of the CMI in greater depth, explore its website, which further unpacks the way it operates, its funding structure, and its decision-making processes.

00Explore further:

If you would like to understand the work of the CMI in greater depth, explore its website, which further unpacks the way it operates, its funding structure, and its decision-making processes.

The role of businesses and the private sector

The business and private sectors have the ability to make significant contributions to global peace and security. Yet current peace agreements and peace negotiations rarely include the private sector as a key stakeholder. Misha Nagelmackers-Vonov, a member of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, has analysed the relationship between the private

sector and peacebuilding. She argues that the absence of the private sector is a significant hindrance to sustainable peacebuilding (Nagelmackers-Vonov, 2017:12). Reflecting on several unsuccessful attempts to create sustainable peace in war-torn areas like Papua New Guinea, Liberia, Sudan, and South Sudan, she finds that more than half the peace agreements lacked an economic dimension or a clear analysis of how the post-conflict economy would be revitalised. In response to this, she argues that:

If state-building must rightly remain an internally driven process, economic recovery remains a turning point between success and failure in peacebuilding, because failure retards development and holds back foreign investment.

(Nagelmackers-Vonov, 2017:12)

Engaging the private sector should therefore be an essential component of any peace negotiations. This is especially important considering that business could also proactively initiate networks and engage actors or trade associations in the post-conflict business sector to adopt responsible peace-related business self-regulation (Nagelmackers- Vonov, 2017:9). They are also better positioned than international organisations to encourage sustainable peace on a local level. The Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies (IHEID) and the World Economic Forum jointly produced a comprehensive study of how the private sector has been mobilised to address conflict across a range of case studies and sectors (Amadiegwu, Kihiu & Simon, 2020). One of their key findings is that the role of business in conflict amelioration needs to be suited to its sector, size and degree of exposure to the conflict (Amadiegwu, Kihiu & Simon, 2020:16).

What Nagelmackers-Vonov makes clear is that inclusive and comprehensive peace negotiations are more likely to generate sustainable peace, since all parties are then committed to recovery and stability. This cannot be done without the involvement of the private sector.

1149985151765Further reading:

An engaging article by the Peacebuilding Initiative explores the relationship between peacebuilding and the private sector, and finds that there are several potential ways the private sector can foster economic and regional stability. These include increasing gross national product (GNP), increasing the tax base, creating employment, and investing in private infrastructure. These factors, in turn, can help reduce brain drain and help drive improvements in the delivery of goods and services (International Association for Humanitarian Policy and Conflict Research (AISBL, 2009).

International co-operation plays a vital role in resolving conflict, maintaining peaceful relations between nations, and effectively dealing with global crisis on a mass scale. Learn more about the importance of international cooperation during crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemic.00Further reading:

789305104076500

Conclusion

International security issues regularly feature in the headlines of major newspapers and outlets across the world. This illustrates not only the growth of a global consciousness of the world as a shared space, but also how the events in one region can shape another. Issues of security have not escaped the transformative process of globalisation, as issues of insecurity and instability increasingly spill over national borders and profoundly impact other regions.

This set of notes has explored what security means in the 21st century, and how the conceptions of peace and security have evolved since the 1940s. The relationship between economic development and conflict was also discussed, as well as how strong institutions and political stability play an important role in post-conflict recovery. You examined various approaches used by the international community to manage regional stability, and looked at the various international peacekeeping organisations and their role within the international system. Finally, you explored the role of business leaders and the private sector during peace negotiations.

What these notes made clear is that in an increasingly complex, multipolar world, organisations need to cooperate through multilateralism in order to contain the spread of conflict and violence.

Bibliography

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Blattman, C. 2010. Post-conflict recovery in Africa: the micro level. Available: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/90db/96134462359e09162f1f90dadbdabcc0a16 d.pdf [2017, August 25].

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August 25].

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Available: http://local.conflictsensitivity.org/consortium/an-example-of-conflict- sensitivity-in-practice/ [2017, August 25].

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http://www.globalr2p.org/about_r2p [2017, September 5].

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August 25].

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Private sector development: private sector & peacebuilding processes. Available: http://www.peacebuildinginitiative.org/indexf436.html?pageId=2087 [2017, August

28].

International Monetary Fund. 2016. Coping with conflicts [Video file]. Available: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GMjTgfVOGtM [2017, August 25].

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International Peace Institute. 2017. Elders stress multilateralism in building sustained peace. Available: https://www.ipinst.org/2017/05/importance-of-multilateralism-in- sustaining-global-peace#7 [2017, August 28].

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Kompetenzzentrum Friedensfrderung. 2012. Fact sheet conflict sensitivity. Available: http://koff.swisspeace.ch/fileadmin/user_upload/koff/Publications/KOFF_Factshe et_Conflictsensitivity_Sept2012.pdf [2017, August 25].

McIntosh, K. & Buckley, J. 2015. Economic development in fragile and conflict-affected states: topic guide. Birmingham, UK: GSDRC, University of Birmingham.

Nagelmackers-Vonov, M. 2017. Business and private diplomacy: a potential catalyst for sustainable peace. Available: http://www.gcsp.ch/News- Knowledge/Publications/Business-and-Private-Diplomacy-A-Potential-Catalyst- for-Sustainable-Peace [2017, August 28].

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. 2010. International support to statebuilding in situations of fragility and conflict. Available: http://www.oecd.org/officialdocuments/publicdisplaydocumentpdf/?cote=DCD/DA C(2010)37&docLanguage=En [2017, August 28].

Rohwerder, B. 2014. The multilateral systems contribution to peace and security. Available: http://www.gsdrc.org/docs/open/hdq1173.pdf [2017, August 28].

Serneels, P. & Verpoorten, M. 2012. The impact of armed conflict and economic performance: evidence from Rwanda [Working paper]. Oxford: Centre for the study of African Economics [2017, August 28].

Tardy, T. 2011. Peace operations: the fragile consensus. In SIPRI yearbook 2011: armaments, disarmament and international security. Available: https://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2011/03 [2017, August 28].

TEDx Talks. 2016. Is the future of peacekeeping peaceful? | Shannon Zimmerman | TEDxUQ [Video file]. Available: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=50CGTTeNtq8 [2017, August 28].

United Nations. n.d.a. Chapter VII. In Charter of the United Nations. Available: http://www.un.org/en/sections/un-charter/chapter-vii/ [2017, September 5].

United Nations. n.d.b. What is peacebuilding? Available: http://www.unpbf.org/application-guidelines/what-is-peacebuilding/ [2017, August

25].

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Van te Velde, D. 2020. Why the new Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office must also focus on economic development. Overseas Development Institute. Available: https://www.odi.org/blogs/17309-why-new-foreign-commonwealth-and- development-office-must-also-focus-economic-development [2020, November

23].

Whaites, A. 2008. States in development: understanding state-building. London: Department for International Development.

World Bank. 2016a. What is local economic development (LED)? Available: http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOPICS/EXTURBANDEVELOPM ENT/EXTLED/0,,contentMDK:20185186~menuPK:399161~pagePK:148956~piP K:216618~theSitePK:341139,00.html [2017, August 25].

World Bank. 2016b. LED case studies. Available: http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOPICS/EXTURBANDEVELOPM ENT/EXTLED/0,,contentMDK:20196572~menuPK:402644~pagePK:148956~piP K:216618~theSitePK:341139,00.html [2017, August 25].

MODULE 6 UNIT 2

Old and new forms of conflict and instability

2021 LSE

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Table of contents

Introduction3Old vs new wars3Forms of conflict and instability5Technology and instability5Forced displacement6Migrant smuggling6Drug trafficking7Cocaine7Heroin8Illegal firearm trade8Criminal purposes8Political purposes8Terrorism9Environmental instability10Pollution10Illegal trade of natural resources10Cybercrime11Conclusion11Bibliography12Learning outcome:

LO2: Identify how globalisation magnifies and transmits old and new forms of conflict and instability.

Learning outcome:

LO2: Identify how globalisation magnifies and transmits old and new forms of conflict and instability.

Introduction

The forms of conflict and instability of the 21st century are distinctively different from those experienced during the 20th century. Globalisation and increased global integration has caused instability and conflict to expand beyond the domains of inter-state wars. To understand the dynamics of contemporary society, it is important to understand how globalisation magnifies and transmits old and new forms of conflict and instability. These notes will explore this topic in more detail.

Old vs new wars

Mary Kaldor, a professor of global governance at the London School of Economics and Political Science, argues that the 21st century has seen the development of what she has termed new wars. New wars are wars that have emerged in the aftermath of the Cold War and the concurrent rise of globalisation that challenged some of the fundamental precepts of conflict. In this context of transformative globalisation and economic integration, MNCs, international organisations, NGOs, and civil society have greater power to more readily challenge the conventions of state dominance over politically-inspired violence and marshal resources to pursue their respective agendas (Kaldor, 2013:2). Table 1 illustrates the difference between old and new wars, as defined by Kaldor.

Table 1: The difference between old and new wars. (Adapted from: Kaldor, 2013:2-8)

Old wars New wars

Actors Fought between states using state military forces. Fought by state and non-state actors, including state military forces, private security contractors, warlords, paramilitary units, and civilian groups.

Violence is influenced both from above (international organisations) and below (MNCs, social groups).

Goals Fought for social, economic, or military interests of the state. This includes wars waged for ideological purposes, such as the Cold War. Identity politics is used as an instrument garner support for war. Fought on the basis of identity politics. Groups wage war to gain power for a particular group rather than for the larger public interest. The aim of war is to increase political mobilisation based on identity.

Obtaining state power is seen as a method of accessing resources. The objective of new wars is rarely to change state behaviour.

Finances War is financed by the state through taxes. Economic support is centralised within the state. With declining access to adequate tax revenue, particularly in weaker states, alternative methods of financing are created. This includes smuggling, kidnapping, drug and arms trafficking, and the pillaging of humanitarian aid.

Methods of war Battels are systematically waged in specific regions for the purpose of seizing territory. Violence is targeted at the enemy state rather than civil society. Open battles are uncommon. Actors aim to seize territory through political methods and aim to take control of the population. This is often done by displacing an unwanted section of the population.

Intensity Open warfare and strategic battles increase the number of battle deaths. Battles are intense, with large causality rates. Battles are rarely openly fought, which increases the duration of wars. New wars are generally low intensity, which produces extended and persistent conflict.

What Table 1 illustrates is that policymakers can no longer make policy decisions based on the conventions of old wars. New wars have a new logic that require a new policy response (Kaldor, 2013:4).

1149985152400The state of global peace:

Vision of Humanity works in partnership with the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) to gather data that illustrates the state of global peace. Recognising that the 21st century is significantly different to any other period in human history, Steve Killelea, the founder and executive chairman of IEP, understands that the problems we are facing are global in nature (Killelea, n.d). As a result, the institute produces the global peace index to understand the state of global peace in the 21st century. Engage with the map to view how peaceful states have been over time. You can also analyse particular indicators, including levels of violent crime, access to weapons, internal conflict, and military expenditure.

00The state of global peace:

Forms of conflict and instability

As mentioned previously, the nature of 21st-century conflict and instability has changed substantially. This is due to significant technological, social, and political factors that have considerably altered the nature of crime, conflict, violence, and security internationally.

Technology and instability

Technology has transformed the dynamics of 21st-century wars, conflict, and instability. In particular, it has enabled both state and non-state actors to engage in asymmetric warfare, which can not only disrupt key sectors in the economies of target states, but also introduce dissonant elements in their political processes. There are several modern technological developments that have transformed global conflict:

Military technology: Increasingly accurate and destructive technology makes wars harder to win when they are waged between equally strong opponents.

Communication technology: The growth in global connectivity has increased the scope of criminal and terrorist networks. However, improvements in communication technology have also increased the scope and reach of human rights groups internationally.

New media: New media has allowed the rapid spread of information, which can be used for positive change, but can also serve as a tool of war by spreading ideology and fear within society.

(Kaldor, 2013:4)

Forced displacement

The type of conflict that has emerged in the 21st century has resulted in increased levels of forced displacement globally. Research by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) found that the current levels of human displacement are unprecedented. In 2020, globally there were:

80 million forcibly displaced individuals;

26.3 million refugees;

4.2 million stateless persons; and

45.7 million internally displaced people.

(United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees [UNHCR], 2020)

Research conducted by the UNHCR in 2020 found that 67% of all refugees come from Syria, Venezuela, Afghanistan, Sudan and Myanmar, and that 86% of these displaced groups are hosted in developing countries (UNHCR, 2020). Kaldor argues that displacement has become a key strategy of 21st century wars; casualty rates are lower, but it often results in extended periods of conflict (Kaldor, 2013:10).

1153160152400Monitoring global displacement:

If you would like to explore the current levels of forced displacement globally, the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) produces regular global and regional reports on forced displacement. By selecting a country, you can analyse current conflict and violence displacement figures, drivers of displacement, and patterns of displacement, and thereby understand a countrys needs and vulnerabilities.

00Monitoring global displacement:

Migrant smuggling

As conflict increases in certain areas, migration levels also increase. This presents an opportunity to professional smugglers, resulting in increased levels of transnational organised crime (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime [UNODC], 2010:4). Figure 1 illustrates that the two largest flows of smuggled migrants are from Africa to Europe and from Latin America to North America.

Figure 1: International migrant flows. (UNODC, 2010:4)

The UNODC estimates that there are 3 million illegal entries into the USA each year between the South and North American borders. Based on the main smuggling routes - Africa to Europe, and South to North America - this trade is estimated to generate an income of approximately US$6.75-7 billion a year for smugglers (UNODC, 2010:4). The UNODC estimates that 55,000 migrants are smuggled from Africa into Europe each year, generating an estimated US$150 million in revenue for smugglers. The fees charged to smuggle migrants vary between US$2000-US$10,000, depending on the country of origin.(UNODC, 2010:5).

1154430156210Migration in OECD countries:

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) gathers data and key statistics on migration in OECD countries, including inflows and outflows of foreign migration, inflows of asylum seekers, and stocks of foreign-born population groups. Engage with these data sets if you would like to analyse current migration patterns in OECD countries.

00Migration in OECD countries:

Drug trafficking

Drug trafficking is a significant form of revenue for underground criminal groups in the 21st century. The following sections shed light on global trafficking of cocaine and heroin.

Cocaine

Cocaine is one of the most traded drugs internationally. Research has found the following:

90 per cent of all cocaine entering the US crosses the Mexican border, while the majority of cocaine entering Europe does so by sea.

The European cocaine market was valued at an estimated US$11 billion in 2017.

The 2017 global cocaine market is valued between US$94 billion and US$143 billion, making it the second-largest drug market after cannabis.

Heroin

(European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction [EMCDDA], 2019:126; Tharoor, 2017; UNODC, 2010:5-6)

Like cocaine, heroin is widely traded internationally. Research has found the following:

The Balkan route through Turkey, which links Afghanistan to Europe, and remains the main trading corridor for heroin.

Profits from the heroin trade go to organised crime groups and Afghani insurgents.

The value of the European heroin market is estimated at US$8.9 billion.

Illegal firearm trade

(EMCDDA, 2019: 104; UNODC, 2010:7)

The trade in firearms is not new. Because firearms are relatively durable and mature well, the circulation of new firearms makes up only 1% of the firearms currently in global circulation. The UNODC suggest that firearms are mostly used for criminal and political purposes, and estimates that the illicit firearms market generates US$170-320 million per year (UNODC, 2010:8). The following sections examine these purposes in further detail.

Criminal purposes

Firstly, firearms tend to be used mainly for criminal purposes.

The trade between the USA and Mexico is an example of firearms smuggling for criminal purposes. Around 20,000 weapons are traded each year, a market valued at an estimated US$20 million.

Smugglers transport small batches of weapons across the Mexican border, which makes it difficult to for police to detect.

Political purposes

(UNODC, 2010:8)

The large stockpile of Soviet-era arms in Eastern Europe, left behind after the Cold War, has contributed to the illegal arms trade. The UNODC has found that:

These firearms are mostly traded through officials and international arms traders;

Trade is seasonal, depending on demand in warring areas;

The largest demand comes from warring parties in Africa; and

In the absence of tradable or international currencies, warring parties make payment through natural resources.

Terrorism

(UNODC, 2010:8)

The IEP has found that in the 21st century, the dynamics of global terrorism are complex and fluid. While there has been a global reduction in levels of international terrorism, terrorism in certain areas of the world continues to intensify and grow. The 2020 Global Terrorism Index reveals the following:

Afghanistan, Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Mali, Somalia, and Iraq are the most affected countries, accounting for approximately 66% of all terrorist casualties in 2019.

The four largest terrorist groups are Al-Shabaab, Taliban, ISIL, and Boko Haram, and they are responsible for more than 70% of all global terrorism casualties.

In 2019, deaths committed by Al-Shabaab decreased by 8% since 2018, with the group being responsible for 578 deaths in 2019.

The Taliban were responsible for almost 5,000 deaths in 2019.

ISIL undertook attacks in 28 countries in 2015, an increase from the 13 countries in 2014. This group has seen a dramatic decrease in deaths committed, and in 2019, were at their lowest point since 2013.

Boko Haram were responsible for over 1,000 deaths in 2019.

Terrorisms global economic impact in 2019 reached US$26.4 billion, which is a dramatic decline from previous years such as 2017 when the economic impact reached up to US$89 billion.

Incidents of terror are most likely to occur in the Organisation for Economic Co- operation and Development (OECD) member countries that experience low socio- economic performance.

93 per cent of all terrorist attacks between 1989 and 2014 occurred in countries with state-sponsored terrorism.

(Institute for Economics & Peace, 2016:2-5; 2020:13-17)

Global terrorism index:

Vision of Humanity, in partnership with the IEP, has also produced a global terrorism index to visualise the state of global terror. Engage with the map to understand which countries have been most affected by terrorism, and how this has changed over time. You can also analyse particular indicators, including the number of incidents, fatalities, and injuries, and the total damage to property.

Global terrorism index:

Environmental instability

Improved methods of communication and transportation have increased environmental instability in the 21st century. In particular, globalisation of trade and production has opened up new regions to the scourge of pollution of air, water and land as well as unregulated and even criminal resource exploitation. The following sections will examine this in more detail.

Pollution

Globalisation has not only increased levels of international trade and production but also encouraged rising trends towards greater resource consumption with sometimes devastating environmental consequences. As a result, the expansion of pollution of air, water and land have been degraded life in communities through daily exposure to these hazardous conditions. In some regions of the world, once pristine eco-systems are being systematically undermined by unsustainable practices such as over-exploitation in reckless pursuit of immediate profits. For instance, coastal communities that had once been able to rely on fishing are being driven out of work through a combination of pollution and over-exploitation by commercial fishing operations which destroy entire eco-systems through unsustainable practices like drift netting.

Research has found that air pollution has reached hazardous levels in many of the major cities in the world, exposing people to toxic chemicals on nearly a daily basis. Acidity in oceans, the by-product of industrial and agricultural production on land, has been rising rapidly, destroying over 90 per cent of all-natural coral reefs and threatening global fisheries world-wide. Fertilisers used in large-scale commercial farming are not only polluting inland waterways (and contributing to ocean acidity) but are reducing the health and productivity of the soil, thereby placing long-term food security in jeopardy (UNEP, 2017:2-8).

Illegal trade of natural resources

Sub-Saharan Africa and South East Asia are the most vulnerable to poaching of endangered animals. Research has found the following:

Central Africa is the largest supplier of ivory, and Southern Africa is the largest supplier of rhino horn.

Militant groups are often involved in the trade of ivory and rhino horn to fund their military activities.

A wider variety of animals are poached in Asia than in Africa, although tigers remain most vulnerable.

The illegal importation of wood from South East Asia to Europe and the rest of Asia was estimated at 10 million cubic meters, valued at about US$3.5 billion in 2010.

Trade in illegal wood is difficult to police because of the use of fraudulent paperwork.

Cybercrime

(UNODC, 2010:9; 2013:87)

Technology and the internet have caused a significant increase in cybercrime, which has resulted in, fraud, the theft of personal information, and the illegal trade of pirated content. The following information reveals the extent of this new form of instability:

Identity theft is the fastest growing and most prolific form of consumer fraud internationally.

The three most common methods of obtaining personal information are:

Hacking, the exploitation of a private computer network;

Phishing, the act of gaining sensitive information through deception; and

Malware, infected software that can obtain access to a network or damage a computer.

Cybercrime is estimated to cost the world US$6 trillion in 2021, a dramatic rise from US$3 trillion in 2015.

(UNODC, 2010:13; Morgan, 2020)

1149985152400Cyberwarfare:

Cyberwarfare has become a frequently used term in the media to describe the actions of both state and non-state actors who seek to infiltrate computer networks to damage or shut down systems or obtain information. Cyberwarfare has become a key part of Russias geopolitical relationships with other states and various international organisations. Read more about Russias cyberwarfare capabilities to understand how technology is enabling new strategies for war.

00Cyberwarfare:

Conclusion

The process of globalisation has dramatically impacted levels of global instability and conflict. Technology, new methods of war, and increased levels of mobility have magnified

and transmitted new and old forms of conflict and instability, as can be seen in the trade in illegal arms, drugs, and environmental resources. The 21st century has also seen new forms of crime, including cybercrime. Taken together, these issues have compelled states and international institutions to expand existing approaches and develop new ones to manage the sources of conflict as well as promote peace and stability in regions affected by sustained violence.

Bibliography

BBC. 2017. Russian military admits significant cyber-war effort. Available: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39062663 [2017, September 4].

European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction. 2019. EU drug markets report: strategic overview. Available: https://www.emcdda.europa.eu/system/files/publications/12078/20192630_TD03 19332ENN_PDF.pdf [2021, February 11].

Institute for Economics & Peace. 2016. Global terrorism index 2016. Available: http://economicsandpeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Global-Terrorism- Index-2016.2.pdf [2017, August 22].

Institute for Economics & Peace. 2017. Global peace index 2017. Available: http://visionofhumanity.org/indexes/global-peace-index/ [2017, August 31].

Institute for Economics & Peace. 2017. Global terrorism index 2017. Available: http://visionofhumanity.org/indexes/terrorism-index/ [2017, August 31].

Institute for Economics & Peace. 2020. Global terrorism index 2020. Available: https://visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/GTI-2020-web-1.pdf [2021, February 11].

Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre. n.d. Country profiles. Available: http://www.internal-displacement.org/countries/ [2017, August 31].

Kaldor, M. 2013. In defence of new wars. Stability: International Journal of Security and Development. 2(1):116.

Killelea, S. n.d. About Vision of Humanity. Available: http://visionofhumanity.org/about/ [2017, August 31].

Morgan, S. 2020. Global Cybercrime Damages Predicted To Reach $6 trillion Annually By 2021. Available: https://cybersecurityventures.com/annual-cybercrime-report- 2020/ [2021, February 11].

Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development. n.d. Key statistics on migration in OECD countries. Available: http://www.oecd.org/els/mig/keystat.htm [2017, August 31].

Tharoor, A. 2017. Report: global drug trafficking market worth half a trillion dollars.

Available: http://www.talkingdrugs.org/report-global-illegal-drug-trade-valued-at- around-half-a-trillion-dollars [2017, August 21].

United Nations Environmental Programme. 2017. Towards a Pollution Free Planet.

Report of the Executive. Nairobi. http://www.papersmart.unon.org/resolutions/uploads/k1708347e.pdf [30 October

2017].

United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. 2020. Refugee Data Finder. Available: https://www.unhcr.org/refugee-statistics/ [2021, February 10].

United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. 2010. The globalization of crime: a transnational organized crime threat assessment. Available: https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and- analysis/tocta/TOCTA_Report_2010_low_res.pdf [2017, August 15].

United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. 2013. Transnational Organized Crime in East Asia and the Pacific. Available: https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and- analysis/Studies/TOCTA_EAP_web.pdf [2021, February 11].

In the assignment Please:

Use the course material notes 1 and 2 and highlight in yellow

Module 6 addressed how globalisation has magnified and transmitted global conflict and insecurity in the 21st century. It also explored methods of managing conflict, including the organisations and institutions involved in international peacebuilding and the role of business and the private sector in managing global instability.

Question:

This assignment requires you to conduct independent research into one of the following high-potential countries (These countries have been identified as attractive investment destinations.):

Mozambique

Hong Kong

Brazil

Turkey

The United States of America

Having selected one of these countries, answer the following question:

Discuss two sources of instability present in the country that will prove challenging to a business wishing to invest there. In your response it is important to address how the two sources of instability will inhibit business growth in the country.

Support your argument with evidence from your research.

When writing your essay, you are required to make reference to the course material and other sources consulted as part of independent research, as indicated in the rubric below. Your submission, excluding in-text citations and list of references, may not exceed 500 words.

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