Prepare a report predicting global economy for France or Italy witll grow by 2023 to 2028

You will need to write up a short report (3 pages) forecasting the percentage probability of one of the following.

• The global economy will grow by more than 2% by the end of 2023.
• Either France or Italy will begin the process of leaving the EU by 2028.

You need to predict a percentage probability of either of these events happening (e.g. There is 6% probability France will begin the process of leaving the EU).

Methodology Step

1: Calculate the Base rate Step

2: Inside view March 10th. - Fermi-ize (break the problem into smaller more easily answer questions)

Or -

Identify different plausible scenarios & examine which direction the evidence is trending.

3. Provide percentage probability. In the report, you have to follow this sequence.