right247650 DATE @ "d MMMM yyyy" 3 May 2022

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right247650 DATE @ "d MMMM yyyy" 3 May 2022

09800 DATE @ "d MMMM yyyy" 3 May 2022

1809755772150The NIC under Andrew ShearerIntelligence Collection Plan

DOCPROPERTY Course * MERGEFORMAT PICT8014

035000The NIC under Andrew ShearerIntelligence Collection Plan

DOCPROPERTY Course * MERGEFORMAT PICT8014

Andrew Shearers effect on the Australian National Intelligence Community

The Target

As of March 20, 2021, the NIC consists of 10 agencies as shown below in REF _Ref67852061 h Figure 1 NIC Target Model. The Office of National Intelligence (ONI) reports directly to the Prime Minister and is accountable for the performance of the NIC and the individual agencies. ONI also advises government on intelligence collection and assessment priorities including allocation of collection responsibilities. Understanding how Andrew Shearer will manage and guide the NIC through ONI will be critical understanding Australias intelligence priorities and likely effectiveness.

Figure 1 NIC Target ModelKnowledge Gaps

ONI produces all-source strategic level intelligence, is tasked with coordinating and evaluating Australia's foreign intelligence activities (managing the intelligence enterprise), and reports directly to the Prime Minister.

We need to create a profile on Mr Shearer and his world view including political leanings, how much influence he can exert on the NIC, and how his previous experience influences his decisions.

The powers of ONI to evaluate the effectiveness of the NIC and individual intelligence agencies, may cause friction in the NIC. We need to understand Mr. Shearers political relationships, how he operates politically. How does he encourage or entice cooperation? Does Mr Shearer have any political weaknesses or strengths? We also need to understand Mr Shearers international connections, and successes or failures during his overseas postings.

Strategy and Priorities

Our strategy will be to use OSINT to collect this information to allow us to assess the likely areas of focus that Andrew Shearer will bring to the ONI and by extension the NIC. We are limiting our collection efforts to OSINT. Due to time, stick to a few high-value sources i.e., ministerial papers, Press interviews , past performance, articles, etc. rather than broad ingestion of data.

A priority will be a profile of Andrew Shearer as mentioned above. This will inform our SWoT analysis of him and provide some insight into how he will guide ONI and the NIC. Based on that profile, we need to understand how his world view will affect his use of the powers of ONI and its limits. We need to understand those powers and their limits. Then merge the profile information and the tools Mr Shearer will have available to understand how he will guide and influence the NIC. NOTE: REF _Ref67752509 h Table 1 OSINT Collection Tasking includes a Potential Source column. This is all OSINT tasking and collection. Specific sources are at Collectors discretion.

ONI under Andrew Shearer ICP Matrix

Table 1 OSINT Collection TaskingPrimary Intelligence Requirement Information Requirement Potential Sources Specific Information Requirement

Determine Mr Shearers political views. Is he left or right leaning? Appointment Briefs, Press interviews, articles he has written What is his political party affiliation?

Are his political views moderate or extreme?

Can he work in a bipartisan manner?

What are his views on AU Allies? Press interviews, articles he has written What is his view of New Zealand?

What Is his view of the USA?

What is his view of the UK?

What is his view of Canada?

What are his views on AU opponents? Press interviews, articles he has written What is his view of China?

What is his view on Indo-Pacific regional politics?

Likely longevity in office? News Articles, reactions from opposition government to appointment, Press interviews with The Opposition,Career progression history If the current government loses power, will Mr Shearer retain his position?

Is he likely to want to seek higher appointments and move out of ONI?

Determine Mr Shearers political avenues. Who are his political allies? Press releases, Press interviews, articles List of his significant or influential political allies

How much support will he get politically? Press releases, Press interviews, articles How supportive are they?

How much political power do they wield?

Determine Mr. Shearers political obstacles. Who are his political opponents? Reactions from opposition government to appointment, Press interviews with The Opposition List of his significant or influential political opponents

How much resistance will he get politically? Reactions from opposition government to appointment, Press interviews with The Opposition, Political opponents history Will they actively try to sabotage his efforts?

Will they align with him for the good of the country?

Does he have any domestic political blind spots?

Determine Mr Shearers personal relationships locally and internationally.

What significant relationships does he have domestically? Career history, articles he has written List of known significant domestic associates

Can these relationships be leveraged to improve the effectiveness of the NIC?

What significant relationships does he have internationally in the FVEYs? Career history, articles he has written List of known significant intl associates

Can these relationships be leveraged to improve the effectiveness of the NIC?

What significant relationships does he have internationally outside the FVEYs? Career history, articles he has written List of known significant intl associates

Can these relationships be leveraged to improve the effectiveness of the NIC?

How will Mr Shearer deal with the significant changes in the Cabinet and Ministerial portfolios? Reactions from opposition government to appointment, Press interviews with The Opposition, Political opponents history If Peter Dutton gets the Minister of Defence position, what will be the impact on Mr Shearer?

What will happen if another government spill occurs, and Dutton becomes PM? Will Mr Shearer survive that?

How will Mr Shearers relationships with the various agencies affect his ability to work with them? Interviews and Articles written by Mr Shearer What is Shearers relationship with and view of ASIO?

What is Shearers relationship with and view of ASIS?

What is Shearers relationship with and view of DIO?

What is Shearers relationship with and view of AGO?

What is Shearers relationship with and view of AFP?

What is Shearers relationship with and view of Home Affairs?

What is Shearers relationship with and view of AUSTRAC?

What is Shearers relationship with and view of ACIC?

Determine Mr Shearers educational history What kind of education does he have? Cabinet Profiles, articles, interviews Did he complete all the schooling he attempted?

What degrees does he have from which schools?

Determine the NIC Structure What is the operational structure of the NIC? Intelligence related legislation, NIC web sites How do the agencies relate to each other?

What is the agency Hierarchy?

Is Mr Shearer looking to change any of the operating structure of the NIC? Can he even do that withing the various legislative constraints?

Determine NIC Function What is the function of the overall NIC? NIC related legislation What is the domestic / foreign coverage split?

What powers does Mr Shearer that could affect that balance?

What is the coordination and relationship between the domestic and foreign agencies?

News Articles, reports, reviews and press interviews What is the balance of Open Source vs Clandestine collection?

What are Mr Shearers Big Bets for NIC Wins?

Where will Mr Shearers background help him the most, and where are areas he will likely avoid?

What are Mr Shearers professional blind spots that might create a weakness in the NIC. Career history, articles he wrote, press interviews with Shearer Does he have any significant areas of complacency about foreign adversaries?

Does he have a particular axe to grind with any of Australias adversaries?

What are Mr Shearers areas of focus for the operations of the NIC? Articles, reports, press interviews Where would Mr Shearers personal views bias his target allocation?

Will Mr Shearer favour certain agencies over others and how might that influence his recommendations for funding allocation?

Which agencies is Mr Shearer likely to apply more scrutiny too with his audit and reporting powers?

Determine the NIC Process How is NIC Coordination managed? Related Legislation, NIC web sites, academic reports and reviews What is the process for coordinating between the agencies?

Which areas are called out in the various NIC reviews that need improvement, and will Mr Shearer focus on them?

Are changes to Collection Systems required or desired? Career history, press interviews, articles hes written, RFPs/Tenders in the NIC Will Mr Shearer try to go for big projects that overhaul the NICs collection and coordination systems?

Is there enough good will across the NIC that would allow him to do this, or will they resist system and process change?

Will Mr Shearer engage industry, or try to in-source change?

What is the appetite for changes to data handling or data classification that may affect the NICs Efficiency? Career history, press interviews, articles hes written, RFPs/Tenders in the NIC Are there plans to move to different infrastructure? If so, what are they?

Will Mr Shearer support the Governments agenda to engage Industry more to get out from under capital expenditure?

Will changes be made to data classification that will encourage data sharing across agencies and FVEY partners?

Will more engagement with industry be accepted by the NIC or will they be too risk averse?

What will Mr Shearers effect on the reporting be? Career history, press interviews, articles hes written Is there a likelihood that his detractors might withhold information to produce errors in reporting that would affect his career?

Will his personal biases affect the tone or storyline of the reports?

Determine ONI Structure What is the personnel structure of ONI where it relates to Mr Shearer and his view of success? ONI web site, public records, reviews and articles. How much pull do his subordinates have across the rest of the NIC?

Does he have a competent and compliant leadership team?

Determine ONI Function ONI Responsibilities Related legislation What are the responsibilities of ONI as defined by the legislation?

Career history, articles, press interviews Does Mr Shearer have a desire to grow the responsibilities of ONI?

ONI Accountabilities Related legislation What are the accountabilities of ONI as defined by the legislation?

Determine ONI Process How does ONI handle its intelligence assessment duties? ONI web site, open ministerial briefs How often does ONI produce assessments for the political elites and are they presented by Shearer personally?

OPI web site, press interviews articles How will ONI expand the Open-Source Centre and will it be used as a beacon for Mr Shearers personal achievements?

How will ONI execute its review duties? Related legislation What is the auditing and efficiency reporting process for ONI on the NIC?

What is the likelihood that this function will be abused?

How will ONI execute its NIC coordination duties? Related legislation, ministerial announcements Will these be left largely up to the individual agencies or will ONI be more involved?

NIC tenders, press interviews, articles, reviews Are there plans for systems to be put in place to facilitate better coordination?