Static And Dynamic Simulation Modelling of Public Transportation Challenges In Harare, Zimbabwe

CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION

1. Introduction

The subject of public transportation systems in Zimbabwe exemplifies the economic challenges the country has faced since the turn of the millennium. To effectively track the genesis of public transportation systems in Zimbabwe, it is imperative to trace its economic challenges that encompass runway inflation, foreign currency reserves depletion and exchange rate volatility that prevent bus operators from importing both spares and coaches (Mbara, 2006). The study notes that the poor state of public transportation in Zimbabwe is due to infrastructural bottlenecks, supply side failure to meet excessive demand and persistent breakdowns of public buses. Mbara (2006) contends that the rise in urban populations has not corresponded with concurrent investments in public transport systems. See Figure 1.1 below for public transportation challenges in Zimbabwe.

Figure 1.1: Public transportation challenges in Zimbabwe

Source: NewZimbabwe.com (2020)

The public transportation challenge in Zimbabwes urban areas, particularly in Harare, the capital, is rooted within the aspect of rapid rural to urban migration that followed the removal of the Vagrancy Act in 1980 following the countrys independence from Britain (Bandauko et al., 2016). The Act prevented general mass migration to urban areas which helped to maintain urban populations and streamline service provision relative to public transportation (Mbara, 2006). However, the mass exodus that followed the change of government amidst biting economic woes in rural areas, resulted in large scale urbanisation and resultant public transportation challenges in urban areas (Dube and Chirisa, 2012). Thus, the rapid population growth due to rural-urban migration and natural population increase in urban areas which also corresponded with constrained real economic growth created unintended consequences in public service provision including public transportation (Chiwanga, 2017). In essence, Zimbabwes cities have witnessed the disappearance of formal public transportation systems and the emergence of informal public transport means which have become the preferred form of public conveyance. Harare, the capital city exhibits the informal characteristics of most cities in relation to public transportation hence informalisation epitomises the public transportation sector in Harare. Bandauko, Bobo and Mandisvika (2016) contend that the informal public transportation system in Zimbabwe follows the government deregulation of the transport sector in the 1990s.

The growth of the informal public transportation sector in Zimbabwe which is at best disjointed and chaotic corresponds with a mismatch between the demand and supply of public transportation thereby indicating the absence of a sustainable public transportation system (Maunder and Mbara, 2015). While key stakeholders in Zimbabwes public transportation system concur on the need to draft a sustainable urban public transportation system especially in Harare, there is little traction in this regard. In essence, the state of public transportation has deteriorated thereby compelling most passengers to purchase second hand vehicles from Japan to foster their mobility (Bandauko et al., 2016).

Since the Zimbabwe government decision to ban private commuter omnibuses on November 7, 2020 as part of COVID-19 pandemic containment measures, the state of public transportation has remained dismal. Though the government tried to plug the supply gap through re-introducing the Zimbabwe United Passenger Organisation (ZUPCO) buses, there has been a staggering 97?cline in public transportation options (Machaya, 2019). This indicated a major policy failure because the ZUPCO fleet is depleted yet it has been given a monopoly to ferry passengers (Madzimure and Ruzvidzo, 2019). Mbara (2006) contends that ZUPCO has been subject to endemic under performance as it failed to procure enough buses to meet rising passenger demand, was subject to administrative challenges and failed to service coaches or pay staff on time. Thus, ZUPCO is a largely failed public transportation initiative in Zimbabwe.

The decline in public transportation services has worsened existing shortages and increased urban evils encompassing long waiting times for commuters; accidents; overcrowding; noise and air pollution; passenger inconvenience; disruption in work schedules and productivity losses (Bandauko et al., 2016; Muviringi, 2012). This corresponds with growing passenger frustrations leading to organised protests which epitomise a deepening crises that could foster civil unrest if not solved as a matter of urgency (Murenzvi, 2019). Moreover, inadequate public transportation has long running economic ramifications especially since foreign investors perceive public transportation availability as a measure of ease of doing business.

Addressing these challenges requires a comprehensive approach encompassing the introduction of a mass public transportation system such as the Rail or Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems which provide citizens with diverse, safe and accessible public transportation options (Muzavazi, 2017). It also resonates with upgrading the existing public passenger transportation infrastructure such as roads and bus terminals thereby accommodating growth in demand and enhance efficient service delivery (African Development Bank, 2011). This also involves the reevaluation of the electronic debit card payment system to foster inclusivity, mitigate additional charges as part of broader efforts to explore alternative payment methods. Lastly, there is need to foster open communication among all public transportation stakeholders in Harare.

In view of the practical challenge associated with declining state of public passenger transportation, this paper seeks to use a static and dynamic model to simulate and address the public transportation challenge in Harare, Zimbabwe. In view of public transportation inefficiency in Harare, the proposed solution seeks to create a more inclusive, efficient and accessible public transportation system as part of the broader efforts to alleviate current public transportation issues and offer a foundation for a sustainable public transportation landscape.

1.1 Aims and objectives

The major aim of the current study is to use a static and dynamic model to simulate and address the public transportation challenge in Harare, Zimbabwe. The specific objectives encompass the following:

• To examine the current state of public passenger transportation in Zimbabwe using static modelling to analyse existing infrastructure, systems and relevant factors that influence transportation efficiency in Harare.
• To review static modelling for future projections regarding state of transportation in Harare, emphasizing potential improvements or challenges. This objective aims to provide insights into the envisioned changes and identify areas for improvement.
• To perform both dynamic and static modeling to simulate transportation scenarios in Harare by evaluating the current state (as is) and projecting potential improvements (to be) thereby assessing the impact of changes on transportation efficiency, offering a comprehensive view of the system.
• To compare and evaluate the results obtained from dynamic and static modeling simulations for both the current state (as is) and projected improvements (to be). This step aims to identify key differences, strengths, weaknesses, and potential benefits of implementing changes to enhance transportation efficiency in Harare.
• To conduct additional research to gather pertinent information about transportation systems in Zimbabwe and neighboring countries. This objective broadens the project's scope, providing a comparative analysis and identifying potential best practices or challenges that may influence the transportation efficiency in Harare.

1.2 Project approach

In the execution of this project, the methodology is centered on a comprehensive understanding of the transportation problem, employing online surveys, dynamic modeling, static modelling, key performance indicators (KPIs), and data-driven monitoring techniques. Drawing insights from the evaluation in Task 1, the approach integrates dynamic modeling to simulate and analyze various transportation scenarios, utilizing real-world data to gain valuable insights into the evolving state of the transportation system. This iterative process serves as a foundational tool for tracking progress and making informed decisions.

To comprehensively assess public sentiment regarding the current transportation system in Harare and gather insights for potential solutions, I will employ an online survey approach.

Utilizing accessible platforms such as social media, community forums, and snowball sampling, the survey will feature a mix of closed and open-ended questions. These will delve into issues like waiting times, modes of transportation, and payment methods. Through this method, I aim to capture a diverse range of community perspectives, fostering a community-driven understanding of transportation challenges and facilitating the formulation of effective and inclusive solutions.

Dynamic modeling plays a pivotal role in the methodology, allowing for the simulation of different transportation scenarios, considering variables such as changes in infrastructure, the introduction of new transportation modes, and modifications in policies. This iterative process ensures continuous refinement and adaptation based on real-world data and evolving factors. A set of comprehensive KPIs has been identified to quantitatively measure the success and impact of proposed solutions. These KPIs include reductions in waiting times, improvements in transportation efficiency, cost-effectiveness of implemented measures, growth in ridership, and enhanced passenger satisfaction. These indicators provide a quantitative framework for evaluating project outcomes and adjusting strategies as needed.

The project employs data-driven monitoring techniques to gather, analyze, and interpret realworld data related to the transportation system. This includes data on commuter patterns, usage of different transportation modes, and the impact of policy changes. Utilizing advanced analytics, the project continuously refines its understanding of the transportation landscape, identifying trends, challenges, and opportunities. Integral to the methodology is a robust feedback loop with stakeholders. Regular engagement with government agencies, transportation authorities, commuters, and other relevant stakeholders ensures a constant exchange of information. Stakeholder feedback plays a crucial role in refining strategies, addressing emerging issues, and aligning project objectives with community needs. Continuous benchmarking against similar transportation systems and trend analysis in transportation and urban development are incorporated into the methodology. This comparative analysis helps identify best practices, lessons learned, and potential pitfalls. It provides valuable insights for adapting strategies to align with industry trends and international standards.

In summary, this holistic approach, combining dynamic modeling, KPIs, data-driven monitoring, stakeholder engagement, and benchmarking, facilitates a thorough and accurate evaluation of project progress. It ensures that the project remains adaptable to changing circumstances and effectively addresses transportation challenges in a systematic and informed manner.

1.3 Dissertation outline

This dissertation is divided into five (5) chapters. Chapter 1 introduces the subject of inquiry through building the context in which the problem under investigation occurs. Chapter 2 provides a background investigation of empirical literature on public transportation while chapter 3 provided a detailed review of the methodology. Chapter 4 offers an execution of the project and Chapter 5 evaluates the entire process.

1.4 Chapter summary

This chapter offers an opening into the subject of inquiry through indicating the context within which the study occurs. This leads to the problem identification which informs the study objectives.

The next chapter offers a detailed review of existing empirical literature.

CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Introduction

This chapter offers a detailed examination of empirical literature on the subject of public transportation challenges in general. The aim is to establish the extent of scholarly coverage on the subject of inquiry via critical evaluation of existing literature. This in turn indicates the knowledge gap that the current study occupies in the body of knowledge.

2.2 Empirical literature on public transportation challenges

Several studies have been conducted in relation to the aspect of bus transportation systems in globally, in Africa and in Zimbabwe and they all seem to concur about the poor state of public transportation.

2.2.1 Global scenarios

Informal means of transportation are a global phenomenon that indicates the failure of state led public transportation endevours. Cervero (2015) contends that in Brooklyn Burroughs in the USA, informal operators run a para-transit system along the busiest thoroughfares. The study notes that the scheme is largely operated by Caribbean immigrants who are unlicenced yet offer direct competition to licenced municipal buses. Kumar and Barret (2015) concur that private taxis using utility vans dominate the sector and diverge from standard routes to avoid congestion while also providing opportunities for door to door delivery. International Autosource (2015) notes that 88% of people lack access to public transport in the USA (See Figure 2.1 below).

Figure 2.1: Transportation statistics in the USA

Source: International Autosource (2015)

In Hong Kong, Lee (2013) opine that illegal transport networks have been operational since the 1960s. These uninsured and unlicensed operators compete with orthodox transporters for passengers often undercutting the prices charged by legitimate public transporters.

2.2.2 Public transportation challenges in Africa

In Africa, Welle, Abubaker and Ali (2022) indicate that in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, congestion and long waiting times are characteristic of the public passenger transportation systems. The study indicates that passengers are exposed to the vagaries of the weather leading to frustrations and a general preference for walking instead of commuting. It further contends that the public transportation system exhibits fierce competition between formal government sanctioned systems and informal private operators and this increases the scope for accidents. It concludes that the public transportation system in Addis Ababa is insufficient, inconvenient and inaccessible hence it has become a burning political issue. This correlates with Yankso (2022) who notes that in Ghana and Namibia, public transportation is associated with pollution, congestion and inequality given the competition between public and private operators. The study notes the general absence of a public passenger service thereby threatening the integrity of the environment and passenger well-being. This indicates the need for alternative modes of transport and policies and further supports the call for inclusive transportation system that cater for key populations encompassing the elderly, children and the disabled. Correspondingly, Shigweda (2009) alludes to the poor state of public transportation in Windhoek, Namibia where the system is subject to overcrowding, traffic delays, excessive competition posed by unregistered pirate taxis and infrastructural bottle necks.

In Kenya, studies indicate the poor state of public transportation which is symptomatic of the entire sub Saharan Africa region. Agbiboa (2020) associates the public transportation challenges in Kenya to rapid urbanisation leading to general inequality in which the poor bear the brunt of weak public transportation modalities. The study notes that the sector is dominated by informal Matatus that are largely expensive, inefficient and environmentally disastrous owing to higher congestion and pollution levels. Agbiboa (2020) contends over 80% of Kenyas public transportation needs are met by unauthorised mini buses that capitalise upon the general absence of formal state-led public transportation systems. The informal public transportation system in Kenya; that runs extra-

legal routes is not only poor in quality but also diametrically opposed to the needs of a modern commuting public that requires fixed fares, time tables and fixed stops. Informal taxi operators also exhibit bad driving habits, unsavory behaviour and use foul language when speaking to passengers. This corresponds with Heinze (2020) who also noted that in both Nairobi and Kinshasa, the public transportation system is informal given the general absence of formal public transit means. Medard (2010) adds that in Nairobi there exists a neat dissection between the poor who contend with public transportation challenges and the rich who can afford private motor vehicles.

In South Africa, Hemana and Sifolo (2017) opine that an efficient public transportation system is lacking leading to higher passenger economic costs which pushes most passengers towards the hail-a-ride Uber. Some passengers simply resort to walking as evidenced by Table 1.1 below.

Table 1.1: Mode of public transportation for work and school going passengers in South Africa

The NHTS survey indicates that taxis remain the most commonly used mode of transport in South Africa thereby indicating the ineffectiveness of public sector transportation initiatives such as the BRT system. This is further confirmed in Figure 2.2 where over 37% of South Africans used taxis while only a combined 11.2% used either public buses or trains for transport in the preceding week.

Figure 2.2: Percentage of households that utilised public transportation in South Africa (2017)

Source: (NHTS, 2017)

Adedeji et al., (2018) allude to inherent infrastructural challenges despite the introduction of the BRT system that aimed to enhance the reliability and capacity of conventional buses in South Africa. However, Adewumi and Allopi (2013) refer to the high maintenance costs incurred by the government to foster an efficient bus public transportation system. Mamabolo and Sebola (2018) also adds that in South Africa, the Bus Rapid Transit system coined to offer direct competition to private mini buses has failed to achieve its targets. However, the BRT system is likely to fail largely because of lack of stakeholder onboarding due to negative trade union influence on the direct that public transportation should take (Mamabolo and Sebola, 2018; Satawu, 2006). Thus, public transportation systems in South Africa have been subject to violence, threats and confrontation and it is for this reason that the newly introduced BRT system is only functional in urban areas like Johannesburg, Cape Town, Port Elizabeth, Nelson Mandela Metro and Rustenburg (Mamabolo and Sebola, 2018).

In a related study focused on Maputo and Nairobi, Klopp and Cavolli (2019) note the validity of inclusive programs in the acceptance of public bus transit systems. This indicates that instead of focusing on large scale hardware aspects such as roads and railway lines in larger cities, planners also need to take note of the software that also encompass building consensus with established informal transportation businesses. Plano and Behrens (2022) note that in South Africa paratransit operators provide an excellent feeder service into the public bus and train transport system hence the need acknowledge their contribution. However, the integration has been affected by service incompatibilities between the formal bus services and the informal paratransit operators. This means that in the context of policy discord and lack of consensus the establishment of an effective bus public transport system remains problematic in South Africa.

Oreg et al., (2011) contend that the failed implementation of most public sector programs is a result of inherent resistance to change that occurs due to lack of participatory approaches incorporating incumbents. Other scholars such as Poon (2018) note that despite rabid support for the BRT system from global proponents and consultants, the system is not without its own challenges especially in Tanzania where the amount of private transport continues to increase thereby reducing the level of demand for the service. The scholar also adds that the BRT system is subject to limited passenger capacity thereby pushing most passengers back to the private transportation sector. As in South Africa, Rizzo (2017) contends that the BRT system has not lived up to its promise of absorbing the mini bus workforce hence it has failed to find support among the unemployed. Jacobsen (2020) adds that though the government offered compensation to cater for loss of business, the finances only reached mini bus owners and failed to cater for the omnibus crew who became jobless. Besides, there were challenges associated with setting up, maintaining and repairing the road infrastructure in the country as opined by Jacobsen (2020). The study also notes that at its inception the DART service was subject to operational challenges as the system was manned by untrained former minibus operators who simply used their old tricks in the new DART business and this resulted in lack of passenger trust for the service. There were also challenges associated with bus scheduling that resulted in eventual overcrowding on available buses and this frustrated passengers (DART Agency, 2014). According to Michael (2018) most passengers preferred private mini buses compared to DART and their negative sentiments were expressed in tabloid and broadsheet newspapers that criticized the initiative. Michael (2018) contend that the DART system was generally characterised by passenger delays, overcrowding and lower standards all of which pointed towards low quality services in Tanzania.

2.2.3 Public transportation challenges in Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe epitomises a troubled nation in relation to public transportation as figures 2.3 and 2.4 below demonstrate.

Figure 2.3: Transport challenges in Harare

Source: The Zimbabwean newspaper (2023)

Figure 2.4: Transport issues in Harare

Source: Masarakufa (2022)

In Zimbabwe, Ndebele (2020) alludes to the state of neglect, discrimination and inaccessibility of public transportation systems. The study focuses on the aspect of accessibility of public transportation systems by disabled passengers and the results indicate glaring insufficiencies. Munuhwa et al., (2020) also establishes that there are inherent sustainability issues in relation to urban informal transportation in Harare, Zimbabwe. The study notes that the growth in informal means of transportation follows government failure to provide adequate public transportation owing to poor economic growth and rapid urban population growth. The study recommends the need for mass transit systems, the development of policy frameworks meant to formalize the informal transport operators, infrastructure improvements, institutional capacity enhancement and good governance in the public transport sector. These views correlate with Nyarirangwe and Mbara (2007) who allude to the unaffordability, inefficiency, inadequacy and unreliable character of the bus public transportation system in Zimbabwe. The study notes that public transportation systems in Harare lack capacity and are of poor quality as evidenced by higher fares in a poorly functioning economic setup. This has forced most families to relocate their school going children to local schools while adults have reduced the frequency of commuting or simply shifted towards alternative transportation modes such as cycling or walking.

In concurrence, Mbara, Dumba and Mukwashi (2014) aver that the public transportation system has remained problematic especially in relation to bus related transportation modes in Zimbabwes urban areas. The study, which leveraged upon an interview based qualitative inquiry in Harare notes that the public transportation loophole created by an absent state-led transportation initiative has created an opportunity for informal private transporters who operate mini buses and private vehicles amidst a policy dilemma on the part of the government. It also contends that though there has been a significant rise in the number of private vehicles, the majority of people rely on public transportation systems given the higher costs associated with obtaining private vehicles. This implies that public transport systems offer a cheaper means of mobility for most urban dwellers in Zimbabwe (Mbara et al., 2014). The study concludes that given the exorbitant prices, unreliability and lack of safety associated with public transport systems commuters have a largely negative perception of public transport systems in Zimbabwe. The study recommends the need for strategic partnerships in the creation of effective and efficient transport systems in Zimbabwe, a thrust which augurs well with the trajectory of the current study that sought to create an efficient public transportation system in Harare, Zimbabwe.

2.2.4 Contradictory evidence

However, while most studies on public transportation in Africa point towards inherent challenges, others have noted some positive developments thereby indicating a range of initiatives that are bearing fruit. In their assessment of the effectiveness of the Dar-es Salaam bus rapid transit system (DBRT), Chengula and Kombe (2017) contends that the system has delivered high quality, fast, comfortable and affordable travel. The system has been associated with the provision of dedicated bus lanes and iconic stations, off-road fare collection and regular bus schedules. It is operated by UDART (Usafiri Dar es Salaam Rapid Transit) which is under the surveillance of SUMATRA (Surface and Marine Transport Regulatory Authority). By 2017 the system operated over 140 golden buses that offered commuter services between 0500hrs and 2300hours daily and it covers over 130km around the capital. The study noted that the DBRT has been an effective remedy to the transportation challenges faced by commuters overtime and it has also addressed challenges such as accidents, loss of life and properties. The mixed methods study, based upon interviews and questionnaires noted that the DBRT which was introduced in 2016 has been an effective public transportation solution which has reduced passenger waiting times, reduced journey times and the cost of travel for the public. The report also indicated that following the introduction of the DBRT in Tanzania there has been a marked reduction in the amount of road traffic accidents, environmental pollution and traffic congestion since buses use exclusive traffic lanes. The study also indicated that bus transportation systems are cost effective compared to rail that requires extensive infrastructural investments. Other benefits encompassed reliability, passenger comfort, economic uplift of households along the bus corridors and reduced travel times all of which seem to have pushed passengers towards the DBRT.

These findings correlate with the results of a customer satisfaction survey by Mapunda (2021) who focused upon 200 passengers and noted that customers were generally satisfied with the BRT system given its service quality orientations such as responsiveness, reliability and tangibility. These views correspond with a qualitative study by Jacobsen (2021) who notes that in Tanzania, BRT is an ideal public transportation choice given its affinity for affordability, speed and sustainability in view of climate change concerns. Mze and Chen (2010) also noted the several benefits associated with the BRT in Tanzania that encompass flexibility, efficiency, reduced operating costs and high service quality. The system which also leverages upon technology has been associated with cleaner and faster buses. Mganda (2017) adds that the BRT in Tanzania has reduced traffic congestion, promoted economic development, restored orderly traffic flow, restored working hours and improved employee productivity in Tanzania.

In Egypt, evidence demonstrates the existence of a robust bus public transportation system rooted upon technology and modern practices. Al Hussainey (2016) noted that in the case of Alexandria there has been rapid introduction of intelligent transport systems within the bus transportation sector and this has resulted in a range of consumer benefits such as reliability, convenience and safety. As noted by Bombay and Mathew (2014) Egypt is one country that has introduced public transportation management, demand responsive transportation management and shared transportation management within the realm of the bus transportation sector. Mohammed and Kassem (2020) ass that Egypt has introduced far reaching public bus transportation systems premised on technology. The country has introduced an online bus transportation systems in which passengers can check the availability and frequency of busses passing through their areas. This correlates with Observations by Tantawy and Zorkany (2014) who opined that technology has been used in predicting bus arrival times and compared to the rest of Africa, Egypt is one country with a flawless bus transportation system run by the government.

The benefits associated with a well-developed public transportation systems in South Africa are extensive. Mamabolo and Sebola (2018) contend that a feasible and suitable public transportation system boosts economic growth. This implies that an efficient public transportation systems catalyses economic growth (Sebola and Baloyi, 2012; Sebola, 2014). This is because effective and efficient transport systems reduce the travel time for commuters who in turn contribute to improved national productivity. Van Dijk (2011) opine that the implementation of a public bus transportation system is associated with an entirely new public transportation network that will also unlock vast opportunities for national economic development as evidenced in countries like South Africa.

Besides, as Mwanyepedza (2017) contends, reduction in travel time for public transport systems reduces the carbon footprint associated with vehicular traffic and this indicate the environmental dividends associated with improved public transportation system. It is clear that when more people opt for public transportation systems this reduces the number of private vehicles on the roads leading to reduced traffic, reduced carbon emissions (Mbara, 2006).

Mwanyepedza (2017) opines that improved public transportation systems are associated with higher levels of safety, reliability and affordability of transportation systems since private mini bus and private vehicle operators are unregulated and often charge higher prices compared to conventional buses. Ugo (2013) and Mhlanga (2017) note that improving the quality of public transportation systems improves the quality of life for the commuting public in view of concerns over safety and violence experienced by commuters in private transportation systems. Sebola and Baloyi (2012) also noted that the private taxi industry in South Africa is the major transportation provider at 65% but as noted by Fobosi (2013) it is subject to challenges such as violence, overloading, and unroadworthy vehicles and over speeding all of which can be addressed through a public bus transportation system such as the BRT. Sebola (2014) adds that the private mini bus industry is unsafe, expensive, inefficient, ineffective and inaccessible hence the need for rapid public transportation systems. Research (Pillay and Seedat, 2007; Chakwizira et al., 2011; National Household Travel Survey, 2013) contend that private mini buses are most dominant transportation mode in South Africa responsible for the transportation of over 40% of national passengers daily.

2.2.5 Literature gap analysis

The above empirical analysis indicates wider scholarly interest in the subject of public transportation systems and most studies allude to the bus transportation system. For Zimbabwe, this presents a low hanging fruit that the government can leverage upon in view of existing infrastructure and the ubiquity of road infrastructure to most parts of Harare. However, of note is that most existing studies have focused on other countries in assessing their public transportation challenges and those that targeted Zimbabwe are old thereby failing to provide current, contextspecific evidence of the practice. This is the gap that the current study occupies through a static and dynamic model that aims to simulate and enhance the state of public transportation in Harare, Zimbabwe.

2.3 Chapter summary

This chapter provided a detailed review of empirical literature which informed the current study. The aim was to establish the body of knowledge on the subject of public transportation and literature generally demonstrates the ubiquity of transportation headaches on a global scale. Other scholars however indicated that in certain countries there are evident improvements which offer opportunities that can be copied in the case of Zimbabwe. The next chapter focuses on the methodology used to examine the subject of public transportation in Harare.

Methodology

Conceptualising simulation modelling

Kettinger et al., (1997) define simulation modelling as a modelling technique that virtually mimics a business process to provide numeric evidence (in the form of quantitative data) behind such changes thereby improving the process. It is the backbone of most business process changes that avoids dependence upon deterministic models like flowcharts that lack the benefit of evaluating alternative redesigned processes. Thus, it simply provides factual numeric data to back performance improvement assertions. Hlupic and Robinson (1998) add that simulation modelling provides distinct quantitative data that aids in decision making. It is therefore associated with multiple predictive benefits and its utility within the public transportation arena is a foregone conclusion given the inherent challenges and the need for improvement. In the current study, simulation modelling allows for more accurate prediction of the transportation problem before practical solutions can be made. In this case, simulation modelling allows the researcher to conduct a what if scenario analysis thereby indicating how the public transportation process can be improved.

Are you struggling to keep up with the demands of your academic journey? Don't worry, we've got your back!
Exam Question Bank is your trusted partner in achieving academic excellence for all kind of technical and non-technical subjects. Our comprehensive range of academic services is designed to cater to students at every level. Whether you're a high school student, a college undergraduate, or pursuing advanced studies, we have the expertise and resources to support you.