Can a Future Siberian Megacity Thrive Amid Climate Change? ARC401

MEGA CITIES

Student ID: 21019790

121210

Assignment 1

Due: 18th March 202

Table of Contents Introduction

Impact of Permafrost Thaw on Siberia's Megacity and Critical Infrastructure Vulnerabilities

Implications of Black Swan Events on the City and Its Natural Resources, Particularly Oil Reserves

Strategies for Mitigating Vulnerabilities in the Face of Permafrost Thaw and Black Swan Events

Intersection of Global Population Dynamics, Urbanisation, and Climate Change in Exacerbating Challenges for Siberia's Megacity

Recommendations Conclusion

References

Introduction

In the rapidly expanding 21st-century urban landscape, Siberia, Russia stands out as a hub of both innovation and challenge, where the forces of nature intersect with the ambitions of humanity. As megacities continue to reshape the global landscape, Siberia offers a microcosm of the complexities and opportunities that come with modern urbanisation. Examples of a recent black swan event as we are now in post covid include the COVID-19-caused supply chain disruptions and the Ukrainian crisis.

Armstrong and McKay (2022) emphasise the critical importance of understanding the tipping point of megacities, where even small disruptions can have significant consequences. Within Russia, Siberia's own megacity, there exists a nexus of permafrost dynamics, tipping point, and potentially devastating black swan events, all of which play a role in shaping the city's vulnerability and resilience. Furthermore, this essay takes a deep dive into Siberia's megacity, exploring the intricacies of permafrost thaw and confronting the looming threat of unforeseen catastrophes. By unravelling these complex dynamics, we aim to address pressing questions about the future of this unique megacities landscape.

Impact of permafrost thaw on Siberia's megacity and critical infrastructure vulnerabilities.

We currently face a critical situation as the threat of permafrost thawing looms over us. If we fail to heed nature's warning, we will inevitably experience warmer climates. However, there is still hope. A multitude of individuals and organisations, from dedicated researchers to industry leaders, are diligently working towards combating climate change. Yet, as we witness our mountains losing snow and ice, it is evident that the coldest regions of the world are now among the hottest. This poses a significant risk to various aspects of our lives, particularly urban planning. In Siberia, home to booming megacities, the vulnerability of infrastructure built on thawing permafrost is a major concern. Moreover, the potential for structural instability and collapse is a real threat, as highlighted by Knuth (2020). In addition, the consequences of this phenomenon extend beyond urban areas. Furthermore, the decrease in land stability also puts built infrastructure, such as pipelines for natural gas and oil, at risk. Konrad (2022) warns of potential leaks and spills that can have severe environmental impacts, threatening water resources and wildlife. Moreover, the degradation of these facilities carries significant economic implications. Industries heavily reliant on these systems, such as energy production and distribution, face the possibility of disruption and potential economic losses that extend beyond Siberia, Russia.

Implications of black swan events on the city and its natural resources, particularly oil reserves.

The landscape and socioeconomic makeup of our globe are shifting due to the exceptional acceleration of urbanisation and globalisation processes during the period known as the Anthropocene era. Permafrost, the permanently frozen soil found in Siberia and other Arctic regions, is especially vulnerable to the effects of global warming, serving as a disastrous metaphor for the ecological problems that climate change is bringing about (Cohen et al., 2019). Moreover, analyses the impact of "black swan" events, which are unforeseen events that have major repercussions, on cities and their natural resources as well. In addition, it focuses in particular on oil deposits discovered in places with large permafrost areas. However, it presents an intriguing and frightening image of our megacities' future by utilising information from emission studies, worldwide population dynamics, and the writings of reputable experts. Over the ages, the global trend towards urbanisation has had a profound impact on resource use and population dynamics. Humans became insatiably hungry for Earth's resources as the world's population grew from 700 million at the start of the industrial period in 1700 to 7.8 billion in 2021. As a result, the use of fossil fuels like coal and oil increased dramatically, which both contributed to the comforts of modern living and upset the fragile ecological balance (United Nations Environment Programme, n.d.). Having a greater understanding of the nuances of urban carbon cultures is necessary in order to enhance our knowledge of the key factors driving climate change. Urban areas became major hotspots for carbon emissions as they grew, producing significant amounts of CO2 emissions that have a direct impact on climate change.

Urban areas became key emission hotspots as they grew, producing significant CO2 emissions that have a direct impact on climate change. In addition, the complex web of transportation, industrial, and urban infrastructure is essentially forming our global carbon culture and maintaining global warming (Salimi & Al-Ghamdi, 2020). Furthermore, the significant effects of global warming become rapidly apparent when we look north to Siberia, which is known for its vast permafrost regions and vital oil reserves. Temperature increases are causing the permafrost, which has been frozen for years, to melt alarmingly quickly (Cohen et al., 2019). However, this not only starts the release of carbon storage but also poses a serious risk to topographical security, which will have an effect on the vast oil infrastructure centred in these areas as well as metropolitan environments. Moreover, the incidence of unanticipated "black swan" events increases these detrimental effects. Significant shifts linked to this intricate matter include a decline in soil stability, potentially leading to the collapse of structures and essential oil infrastructure. Furthermore, warming also causes permafrost to melt more quickly, which has negative environmental effects. This is a dangerous cycle that necessitates quick action (Santos, Lanzinha, & Ferreira, 2021).

In order to overcome these obstacles, future paradigms for urban planning must be reconsidered. Reducing emissions is essential to protecting our megacities' future from the cascading repercussions of climate change. Even if this calls for coordinated actions at many societal levels, global and local government must be the main driver of change, setting the example with policies that put long-term sustainability ahead of immediate financial gains (C. & Craigie, 2019). In summary, the relationship of global urbanisation, black swan events, and climate change indicates terrible circumstances. We need to strike a balance between the planet's ecological limits and our growing need for fossil fuels in order to overcome this dilemma. Understanding the delicate balance of permafrost and how it affects our cities' natural resources is one of the most important tasks of our day. The claim that the environmental course we take today will shape the future of Siberia, our megacities, and the planet Earth is not an exaggeration.

Strategies for mitigating vulnerabilities in the face of permafrost thaw and black swan events

Amidst the relentless march of global warming, Siberia and the Russian Far East stand as battlegrounds against an encroaching adversary: the thawing permafrost. With millions of lives at stake, the urgency of action cannot be overstated (Cohen et al., 2019).

The data from the GTN-P global terrestrial network for permafrost serves as a stark reminder of the magnitude of this threat, revealing a surge in permafrost melt over the years (GTN-P global terrestrial network for permafrost serves as a stark reminder of the magnitude of this threat, revealing a surge in permafrost melt over the years (GTN-P global terrestrial network for permafrost, 2020). As we delve deeper into the implications of this thaw, it becomes evident that the very fabric of Siberian society and infrastructure is at risk, especially critical pipelines vital for district heating, natural gas, and oil transportation (C. & Craigie, 2019).

However, amidst these challenges, there is a glimmer of hope as innovative strategies are being implemented to strengthen Siberia's resilience against permafrost thaw and black swan events. One noteworthy example is our thorough evaluation of the severity of permafrost melting. Through the past twenty years, we have observed a significant increase in thaw depth, causing concern for both the community and infrastructure (C. & Craigie, 2019). Additionally, consider also the implications for infrastructure, where the integrity of pipelines hangs in the balance. For instance, picture a village nestled in the heart of Siberia, its homes standing as steadfast monuments to resilience for over three centuries. Now, imagine the devastation wrought by climate change as floodwaters, laden with debris, engulf the village, forcing its inhabitants to flee (C. & Craigie, 2019). However, the danger persists even after relocation, as the very ground beneath their new homes threatens to give way, a consequence of permafrost subsidence (C. & Craigie, 2019). This vivid example underscores the profound impact of permafrost thaw on both human settlements and critical infrastructure.

The subsidence of the ground, triggered by permafrost thaw, not only compromises pipeline integrity but also jeopardises the steady flow of essential resources like natural gas and oil. Greenpeace's research underscores the gravity of this situation, urging us to act swiftly and decisively to safeguard both lives and livelihoods (Santos, Lanzinha, & Ferreira, 2021).

4.Intersection of global population dynamics, urbanisation, and climate change in exacerbating challenges for Siberia's megacity.

The rise of megacities in the 21st century has ushered in a confluence of challenges exacerbated by global population dynamics, urbanisation trends, and the pervasive impacts of climate change. Siberia, Russia, emerges as a focal point in this complex landscape, facing unique challenges shaped by its geographical and environmental context (Barnes et al., 2019).

The escalating trend of permafrost thaw in Siberia, highlighted by the GTN-P global terrestrial network for permafrost (2020), poses a significant threat to critical infrastructure and population well-being, underscoring the interconnectedness of global population dynamics, urbanisation processes, and climate change impacts (Markolf et al., 2019). As urbanisation accelerates and populations grow, the pressure on natural resources and ecosystems intensifies, further exacerbating the vulnerability of these regions. Moreover, black swan events, such as extreme weather events and natural disasters, discussed by Salami and Al-Ghamdi (2020), can amplify the risks associated with permafrost thaw in Siberia, necessitating proactive measures to enhance resilience and preparedness. Understanding tipping points within megacities like Siberia, as emphasised by Santos et al. (2021) and Armstrong and McKay (2022), is crucial, as minor disruptions can have cascading effects on critical infrastructure and societal well-being. Finally, the intersection of global population dynamics, urbanisation, and climate change presents formidable challenges for Siberia's megacities. Addressing these challenges requires holistic approaches that integrate scientific insights, policy interventions, and community engagement to safeguard the future of these vital urban centres. Only through concerted efforts can Siberia's megacities navigate the complexities of the 21st century and thrive in the face of uncertainty (Sterman, 2000).

Conclusion

Siberia's megacity is at the forefront of a global urbanisation trend, facing unique challenges such as permafrost thaw, unexpected events, and climate change. However, by implementing innovative strategies and taking a holistic approach, the city can enhance its resilience and flexibility, setting an example for sustainable urban growth in a constantly evolving world. While the road ahead may be uncertain, with united efforts and collaborative action, Siberia's megacity has the potential to emerge even stronger and more resilient than before.

Recommendations

1. Invest in Adaptive Infrastructure:

Siberia's megacities must prioritise investment in adaptive infrastructure to effectively mitigate the risks posed by permafrost thaw. This entails incorporating innovative engineering solutions and resilient design principles to safeguard critical urban infrastructure against ground subsidence and structural instability. By embracing adaptive infrastructure, cities can proactively respond to the challenges of permafrost thaw and enhance their resilience to environmental change (Markolf et al., 2019).

2. Enhance Risk Management and Preparedness:

Given the unpredictable nature of black swan events, such as extreme weather phenomena and natural disasters, it is imperative for Siberia's megacities to enhance their risk management and preparedness measures. This includes developing robust emergency response plans, implementing early warning systems, and fostering community engagement to ensure swift and effective responses to emerging threats. Moreover, integrated risk assessments and scenario planning can help identify vulnerable areas and prioritise resource allocation for effective mitigation strategies (Salami & Al-Ghamdi, 2020).

By implementing these recommendations, Siberia's megacities can improve their resilience and adaptability in the face of permafrost thaw and black swan events. These proactive measures will not only protect city inhabitants and natural resources but also pave the way for sustainable urban development in a rapidly changing climate (Santos et al., 2021). Ultimately, investing in adaptive infrastructure and enhancing risk management capabilities are essential steps towards building thriving and resilient megacities in Siberia's challenging environment.