Microeconomics Fall
The review of the article will be set up in the following parts:
1.Summarize the article. Focus on the important points, claims, and information. Discuss the main issues of the article. Express the main points, arguments, and findings of the article in your own words. And most important how the article makes the point across What example, data and graphs are examined.
2.Connect what you read in the article to your existing knowledge of the topic discussed in class Perfect Completion, Monopolistic Competition, Oligopoly, Monopoly. Do you agree with the article conclusion that there is less competition in our economy today? Is the economy moving from the model of perfect competition to monopoly power? Write your critique.Use your outline of opinions to write a page explaining your opinion Decide if you agree with the article, then provide sufficient support as to why or why not from your personal life and experience.
How The Coronavirus Pandemic Could Change Market Structures From Perfect Competition to Monopoly Power PPOWERFFDGOWERPON RISK
1904, investigative journalist Ida Tarbell publishedThe History of the Standard Oil Company, which documented the rise of the US oil giant under its founder, John D. Rockefeller. Exhaustively researched and vividly detailed, Tarbells book showed how the company wielded its monopoly power to crush smaller rivals.Tarbell was seen as a troublemaker in some quarters President Theodore Roosevelt dubbed her style of reform-minded journalism muckraking but her book became a bestseller and played a role in turning public opinion against corporate behemoths, which were accused of stifling competition. Standard Oil was broken up by regulators in 1911.Tarbell might have recognized the structure of US business more than a century later. Even before the coronavirus pandemic hit, bigger companies had seized market share from smaller ones, especially in the technology sector, where digital platforms favor incumbents and first movers. On a range of metrics, markets in advanced economies have become less competitive over the last two decades, most notably in the US.
COVID-19 could see dominant firms gain a further advantage, as they should be better positioned to withstand an economic downturn. So how could these trends reshape the investment landscape? And could public sentiment again turn against the largest companies, as it did in Tarbells day? Start with the immediate consequences of the pandemic. History suggests the economic slowdown will widen existing divisions between companies. In the last three recessions, the share prices of US firms in the top quartile across ten sectors rose by an average of six per cent; those in the bottom quartile fell by 44 per cent.
History suggests the economic slowdown will widen existing divisions between companies. A similar divergence in performance was evident in the early stages of the COVID-19 crisis. In the year to May 1, the weighted average total stock return for the top one per cent of global firms by revenue those that made over $52 billion in 2019 was minus nine per cent. For firms in the $200-500 million revenue bracket, the return was minus 40 per cent.Some companies will be acquired, and some weaker players wont survive bankruptcy. Consequently, capacity will either decline or simply be concentrated among fewer firms, says Giles Parkinson, global equities fund manager at Aviva Investors. In part, this is what recessions do they are the impetus that finally puts zombie firms out of their misery.
Due to COVID-19 containment measures, the worst damage is being inflicted on companies in travel, leisure and retail, as planes are grounded, borders closed, and shops shuttered. Weak companies in these sectors had been sustained by low interest rates and easy access to capital in recent years. A 2019 KMPG report found almost 12 per cent of UK companies in travel and leisure could be categorized aszombie firms a higher proportion than any other sector. KPMG defines zombies as those companies with static or falling turnover, low profitability, squeezed margins, limited cash reserves and high leverage, leaving them with little scope to invest in new products or equipment.
Leverage has gone up in recent years, as companies expected lower-for-longer interest rates to continue, says Colin Purdie, chief investment officer for credit at Aviva Investors. More-indebted companies and those without fortress-like balance sheets could struggle as cash flows dwindle during the COVID-19 lockdown, especially if the market freezes up and they lose access to capital. Take the energy sector, which has been hit by the combined impact of the coronavirus-related demand shock and the glut of new supply from Saudi Arabia that entered the market in early March (although a new deal agreed by the OPEC cartel, Russia and the G20 to cut supplies, announced on April 12, helped stabilize prices.
Some independent oil producers in the US, many of which are highly leveraged, look particularly fragile and could face a wave of defaults and downgrades, says Purdie. Analysis from JP Morgan suggests cumulative high yield energy default rates could reach 24 per cent over the next 12 months, even if the price of crude rises in the second half of the year.4Oil majors such as ExxonMobil, Shell and BP are in a stronger position; having retained access to debt markets, they have built formidable cash war chests to manage the COVID-19 fallout. Lockdown conditions would seem to favor tech giants Elsewhere, lockdown conditions would seem to favor tech giants, already among the worlds most profitable companies. More people are shopping online, boosting Amazons e-commerce business, while the rise in online gaming will benefit its unit Twitch, the dominant player in the e-sports spectatorship market. Similarly, Apple and Netflix are benefiting from greater demand for streaming services. And companies in telecoms, data infrastructure and remote-working technology should be well positioned as workforces decamp from office desks to kitchen tables.
InThe Myth of Capitalism: Monopolies and the death of competition, co-authored with Jonathan Tepper, Denise Hearn documented the rising concentration of industries across the US. She believes COVID-19 is likely to accelerate the trends identified in the book.
Those in the anti-monopoly space are very concerned about [the crisis] providing a competitive advantage for existing incumbentsThose in the anti-monopoly space are very concerned about [the crisis] providing a competitive advantage for existing incumbents, she says. Firms like Amazon are hiring 100,000 workers, while nearly ten per cent of the American workforce files for unemployment. Challenger businesses or even peripheral ones that will be hampered by COVID-19 will make for attractive acquisition targets on the cheap, and the tech firms in particular are sitting on substantial cash reserves.
As of the end of the first quarter, the big five tech firms (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Microsoft) held around $560 billion in cash and marketable securities, according to public filings. And they are starting to put that cash to work: 2020 has seen the fastest rate of deal-making since 2015. In May, Facebook paid $400 million to acquire Giphy, a search engine for animated GIFs, while Amazon is set to buy autonomous vehicle start-up Zoox for a sum in excess of $1 billion.The crisis could lead to further concentration in other industries, too. Take airlines. At 40 of the largest US airports, a single airline already controls a majority of the market, and most big airlines have their own fortress hubs, airports where they face little or no competition.As passenger numbers drop, these larger airlines are poised to grab yet more market share from smaller rivals.Airlines have suffered from a sharp drop in demand. As in other industries, its fairly likely the bigger companies with better balance sheets and access to capital are the ones that are going to survive, says Purdie.
We will still need airlines after this, but probably not as much; the rise in remote working is likely to lead to less travel for work, for example. The airlines that survive this period could emerge stronger and with a greater market share. They are also likely to benefit from lower oil prices on the other side of the crisis, he adds.To an extent, what we are seeing now is capitalism doing what capitalism does separating the wheat from the chaff, rewarding productive businesses and letting others fall away. But there is a risk COVID-19 could make markets and economies less dynamic if it accelerates the rise to dominance of the largest firms.
Data indicates US markets have steadily become more concentrated over the last two decades. The number of listedcompanies halved between 1997 and 2013, and the number of new listings has fallen (see Figure 1). Profits are increasingly hoarded by the leading firms among those that remain: ten per cent of public companies are responsible for 80 per cent of total profits globally, according to McKinsey research.8
Figure 1:Share of new US listed firms as percentage of total
Source: Census Bureau Business Dynamics Statistics (new firms defined as those less than one year old), 2017
The Chicago school of economics, which was influential in designing modern anti-trust law, argued monopolistic power structures rarely last because high profits attract competitors. But this no longer appears to be the case. As the academic Thomas Philippon observes in his 2019 bookThe Great Reversal, US industries with high profits attracted more new entrants until about 2000; since then, entrants to profitable industries have fallen as the leaders pulled away.
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